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<div>
<h1>2026 Best Actor Predictions</h1>
<p>The Best Actor category seems to have a solid front-runner, yet there are still some uncertainties in the rankings from the 5th to 7th slots.</p>
<p>Leading the pack are Timothée Chalamet, the winner of both the Critics Choice and Golden Globe for <em>Marty Supreme</em>, and Leonardo DiCaprio for <em>One Battle After Another</em>. Unlike DiCaprio's previous film <em>Killers of the Flower Moon</em>, which had a supporting female lead capturing most of the attention, <em>OBAA</em> is currently seen as a frontrunner for Best Picture.</p>
<p>There’s been chatter about Michael B. Jordan being overlooked, but unless <em>Sinners</em> performs poorly, he's likely to secure a nomination. In fact, his film is nearing a historic nomination record rather than experiencing a devastating Oscar snub.</p>
<p>Wagner Moura, despite not appearing at SAG, comes in with prestigious accolades including a Best Actor award from Cannes and a Golden Globe for best drama actor for <em>The Secret Agent</em>. Historically, winners with such acclaim have not missed out on Oscar nominations, but his recent SAG and BAFTA omissions raise eyebrows. However, a parallel situation occurred last year with Fernanda Torres in Best Actress, casting further doubt on the interpretation.</p>
<p>The competition intensifies with Ethan Hawke (<em>Blue Moon</em>), Joel Edgerton (<em>Train Dreams</em>), and Jesse Plemons (<em>Bugonia</em>) vying for the final nomination. Each has a plausible route to securing that coveted spot, with Hawke having a clear edge due to his strong precursor presence, while Edgerton has a PGA nomination to his credit despite missing SAG.</p>
<h2>Statistical Insights</h2>
<p>In the forums on <a href="https://awardsworthy.org/showthread.php?67235-Best-Actor-in-a-Leading-Role-January-II-2026&p=6117790&viewfull=1#post6117790" target="_blank">awardsworthy</a>, a member presented a detailed breakdown of the contenders, emphasizing stats from the past decade that appear to favor Plemons and Hawke while posing challenges for Edgerton and presenting Moura with compelling statistics.</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Actor</th>
<th>Recognitions</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Timothée Chalamet</strong> – <em>Marty Supreme</em></td>
<td>CCA, GG, SAG (longlist)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Leonardo DiCaprio</strong> – <em>One Battle After Another</em></td>
<td>CCA, GG, SAG (longlist)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Michael B. Jordan</strong> – <em>Sinners</em></td>
<td>CCA, GG, SAG (longlist)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Wagner Moura</strong> – <em>The Secret Agent</em></td>
<td>CCA, GG</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Ethan Hawke</strong> – <em>Blue Moon</em></td>
<td>CCA, GG, SAG (longlist)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Jesse Plemons</strong> – <em>Bugonia</em></td>
<td>GG, SAG (longlist)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Joel Edgerton</strong> – <em>Train Dreams</em></td>
<td>CCA, GG (longlist)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2>Final Predictions</h2>
<p>Based on the current trajectory, my predictions for the 2026 Oscar nominations in Best Actor are as follows:</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>1. <strong>Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme</strong></td>
<td>↑</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2. <strong>Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another</strong></td>
<td>↓</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3. <strong>Michael B. Jordan – Sinners</strong></td>
<td>↑</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4. <strong>Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent</strong></td>
<td>↓</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5. <strong>Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon</strong></td>
<td>↑</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6. <strong>Jesse Plemons – Bugonia</strong></td>
<td>↑</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7. <strong>Joel Edgerton – Train Dreams</strong></td>
<td>↓</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>8. George Clooney – Jay Kelly</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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