Nationals’ Draft Prospects Overview
This spring, the Nationals have been exploring a diverse range of potential picks for the No. 1 overall selection in this year’s Draft. Leading the charge has been Ethan Holliday, the son of Matt and brother of Jackson. While his selection isn’t guaranteed, he has consistently been at the forefront of the three mock drafts we’ve released thus far.
Potential Picks
Though it appears likely that Holliday could be the top choice, there are several other candidates. In a recent episode of the MLB Pipeline Podcast, we reviewed the percentage chances of various players claiming the top spot. Here’s the breakdown from Jim Callis and myself:
- Ethan Holliday: 40% (Callis); 50% (Mayo)
- Seth Hernandez: 30% (Callis); 20% (Mayo)
- Kade Anderson: 20% (Callis); 15% (Mayo)
- Aiva Arquette: 4% (Callis); 5% (Mayo)
- Jamie Arnold: 3% (Callis); 5% (Mayo)
- The Field: 3% (Callis); 5% (Mayo)
Shift in Mock Draft Strategy
After discussing with several scouting directors this week, it became clearer that if the Nationals do not select Holliday, they may favor a college pitcher who can make an immediate impact. This pitcher, currently regarded as the top college arm in our Draft Top 250, is seen as the most likely to be a reliable starter with his strong combination of skills. Consequently, I’ve moved Kade Anderson into the No. 1 position.
Projected First-Round Picks
Here’s how the first round may unfold with this change at the top:
1. Nationals: Kade Anderson, LHP, Louisiana State
Anderson enters the Super Regional play ranking second in strikeouts among Division I pitchers. He recently achieved a remarkable Regional start, completing seven shutout innings with 11 strikeouts. His athleticism and strong pitch mix make him a desirable pick.
2. Angels: Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
The Angels continue their evaluation of numerous players, but a college pitcher appears to be their best option. With Anderson off the board, Jamie Arnold and Doyle become leading candidates. Doyle has had an outstanding season, notably dominating in strikeouts.
3. Mariners: Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
In this scenario, the Mariners must choose between another college pitcher and the top college bat, Aiva Arquette, who has an impressive 1.137 OPS entering the Super Regional.
4. Rockies: Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater HS
Should the Nationals overlook Holliday, the Rockies are poised to take him. Alternatively, they may opt for Arnold if he remains available.
