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<strong>A WORD FROM SCOTT</strong> September was a whirlwind for those of us covering awards season, packed with films, festivals, and publicists vying for attention. Now that October has arrived, I feel a bit of relief after screening most of the potential award winners and forming a clearer picture of the current landscape.
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Since our last update, <strong>Paul Thomas Anderson</strong>’s <em>One Battle After Another</em> (Warner Bros.) premiered and has become a hot topic in award discussions. With a stellar 95% score on Rotten Tomatoes and impressive box office earnings that have surpassed $100 million globally, its financial prospects are bright despite a hefty budget of around $130 million. It is now competing closely with <em>Hamnet</em> (Focus), <em>Sinners</em> (Warners), and <em>Sentimental Value</em> (Neon) for the top best picture spot.
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In other news, <em>The Testament of Ann Lee</em> has secured a U.S. distributor in the form of Searchlight, and it could disrupt several categories, especially best actress, where <strong>Amanda Seyfried</strong> stands out. A major question for that category remains whether the breakout star of <em>One Battle</em>, <strong>Chase Infiniti</strong>, will be classified as a lead or supporting actress. This decision could enhance the nomination chances for her co-stars <strong>Regina Hall</strong> and <strong>Teyana Taylor</strong>. Warner Bros. hasn't finalized the categories yet, but for now, I’m assuming they will go this route.
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At the box office this past weekend, <em>The Smashing Machine</em> (A24), with a $40 million budget, struggled, earning only $6 million—marking the lowest opening for any film starring <strong>Dwayne Johnson</strong>. The competition from <em>Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl</em> likely contributed, but I doubt the audiences overlap significantly. Having attended a recent Academy screening for <em>Smashing Machine</em>, which was well-attended, I believe Johnson and supporting actress <strong>Emily Blunt</strong> still have solid award prospects.
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On the East Coast, the New York Film Festival continues to unfold, having kicked off on September 26 with the North American premiere of <em>After the Hunt</em> (Amazon/MGM), which underperformed, with a Rotten Tomatoes score of just 51%. The festival later showcased the world premiere of <em>Anemone</em> (Focus), featuring <strong>Daniel Day-Lewis</strong>, primarily praised for his performance (it currently sits at 57% on RT), as well as <strong>Ben Stiller</strong>’s documentary about his parents, <em>Stiller & Meara: Nothing Is Lost</em> (Apple). Notable premieres, including <strong>Kathryn Bigelow</strong>’s <em>A House of Dynamite</em> (Netflix) and <em>Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere</em> (20th Century), were well-received.
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NYFF will wrap up with the world premiere of <strong>Bradley Cooper</strong>’s <em>Is This Thing On?</em> (Searchlight) this Friday. In the meantime, tonight's event features a "secret screening of a highly anticipated new film," which may significantly impact the awards season landscape. Stay tuned for more updates!
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<strong>PLEASE REMEMBER:</strong> Scott’s predictions are based on analysis, not personal preferences. His goal is not to suggest what the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences should do, but rather to predict what they will likely do based on screenings, campaigns, conversations with voters, and relevant statistics.
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