The Pursuit of Playoff Advantage
Throughout the NBA season, teams strive to optimize their standings in the playoffs. By competing over 82 regular-season games, they aim for the best possible record, which can grant them home-court advantage during the postseason. This advantage is enticing, particularly for critical games such as a deciding Game 7, where the atmosphere of home fans can be crucial.
Home-Court Disappointments
However, recent playoff results suggest that home-court advantage may be losing its significance. Fans were surprised when the Cleveland Cavaliers fell to the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 at home. The Boston Celtics’ defeat by the New York Knicks the following day added to the shock. The Oklahoma City Thunder also lost their series opener to the Nuggets, and the Minnesota Timberwolves dropped their Game 1 to the Golden State Warriors. Remarkably, all four top-seeded teams lost Game 1 at home, highlighting a worrying trend for home teams in this year’s playoffs.
A Shift in Winning Percentages
This spring, home teams have a playoff record of just 26-24, marking the lowest winning percentage for home teams since 1981. While home teams were slightly under .500 in 1981, the following year saw them win around 60% of playoff games, a figure they maintained for many years. However, since the 2018 playoffs, home teams have not reached the 60% winning mark, although they came close in 2022.
Declining Success in Game 7s
Home-court advantage has particularly diminished in the highly critical Game 7. Historically, higher seeds had a 79.1% success rate in Game 7s, but since 2021, home teams have won only 5 out of 10 such games. As the Warriors’ recent win in Houston illustrates, this trend is becoming increasingly evident.
Changing Perspectives on Home-Court Value
Warriors coach Steve Kerr’s views on home-court advantage have evolved. In 2018, he emphasized its importance; however, more recently, he downplayed its significance, noting that the rise in three-point shooting has changed the dynamics of games. This evolution has influenced the league since the 2016-17 season, coinciding with the explosion of three-point shots and diminishing home advantages.
Statistics of Road Teams
Interestingly, recent playoff statistics affirm that road teams are thriving when they excel in three-point shooting. This postseason, road teams making more threes than home teams have matched their winning percentage from the previous year. Historically, road teams have become increasingly successful when hitting more threes than their opponents, particularly in recent playoff seasons.
Future Implications for Title Contenders
For title contenders currently trailing in their playoff series, this shift could be a silver lining. If home-court advantage is not as powerful as before, teams may have a viable path to reclaiming momentum in their matches away from home.
