Overview
- Bitcoin has significantly deviated from global M2 growth, with estimates suggesting a fair value of around $136,000 compared to its current price of about $70,000.
- Analysts note that stringent U.S. monetary policy is restricting global liquidity from flowing into risk assets, despite an increasing money supply.
- Rising gasoline costs may diminish the impact of larger tax refunds, thus limiting discretionary spending that typically bolsters equities and cryptocurrencies.
According to recent analysis from CF Benchmarks, Bitcoin is currently trading at a substantial discount to global liquidity trends, amid macroeconomic challenges related to energy prices and monetary policy.
Since mid-2025, global M2 money supply has increased by approximately 12%, while Bitcoin’s value has slid about 35%, as per the index provider owned by Kraken.
A model mentioned in their report indicates a “fair value” for Bitcoin of around $136,000, contrasting sharply with its present trading level close to $70,000.
This divergence signifies one of the most considerable gaps recorded between Bitcoin and a measure historically recognized as a proxy for global liquidity.
Gabe Selby, Head of Research at CF Benchmarks, stated, “The key takeaway from over ten years of data is that divergences between M2 and Bitcoin are typically short-lived.”
The significant factor appears to be U.S. monetary policy; the Federal Reserve has decreased its balance sheet to around $6.7 trillion from nearly $9 trillion in 2022 while keeping interest rates high, limiting capital inflow into markets.
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