The price of Bitcoin is showing some positive movement, currently up 1.1% for the day and trading at approximately $114,000. However, if you look at the weekly performance, it has still declined by -3.77%, leading traders to question whether this is merely a temporary bounce or the beginning of a significant BTC rally.
To gain insights, it’s essential to analyze factors beyond just price charts. Indicators from on-chain metrics, long-term holder behaviors, valuation trends, and trader sentiment are increasingly aligning, pointing to a critical price level for Bitcoin.
Declining Selling Pressure from Long-Term Holders
Major corrections often occur when long-term holders begin to sell, making the observation of spent output bands particularly relevant. From July 23 to August 1, the 7–10 year spent output bands slightly widened, indicating that long-held wallets were beginning to move their Bitcoin. This type of selling pressure was similarly observed between July 10 and July 19, where Bitcoin’s price dropped from $123,000 to $117,000.
Despite this, long-term holder selling pressure has declined steadily since the peak on July 4. Notably, the band from July 10 to July 19 exhibited wider bands compared to those from July 23 to August 1, indicating a drop in the intent to sell among long-term holders. Throughout this latest band widening, Bitcoin has remained above $113,000, suggesting that the market is absorbing the sell-off without faltering—an encouraging sign for BTC’s strength.
MVRV Ratio Suggests Bitcoin is Undervalued
With selling pressures subsiding, the next focus is on valuation. The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio is currently indicative of undervaluation, standing at 2.19—consistent with levels that have previously sparked rallies. For example, in June 2025, the MVRV at 2.16 saw Bitcoin prices rise from $101,000 to $110,000 within six days. Similarly, in April and November 2024, comparable MVRV levels led to significant price increases.
The MVRV ratio provides a comparison of the current BTC price against the average cost basis of all holders; lower values suggest room for growth, while higher values indicate overheating. Presently, we are in a favorable range. Additionally, changes in trader positioning are evident, with the long/short ratio rising from 0.89 to 1.02 within just two days, confirming that more traders are anticipating upward movement as the valuation signals indicate potential for growth.
Critical Price Level to Watch: $117,000
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price is currently above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which is situated at $113,600, drawn from the June low of $98,000 to the all-time high of $123,000. Below this, support levels exist at $111,900 and $110,000. Should these levels be breached, the next significant support would be around $107,000, which would invalidate the bullish setup.
However, the key price level to monitor is $117,000. The chart reveals that this zone has significant candle activity, highlighting its importance as both support and resistance. If the price manages to breach this level, it may initiate the next Bitcoin rally; otherwise, we may witness another unsuccessful attempt in a volatile range.
