Every year, I compile a list of Major League players who have shed their rookie or prospect status and who I believe are set to make notable strides in the upcoming season, whether due to skill development, a shift in their role, or encouraging trends observed over the past couple of years.
Last year, I produced one of my shortest breakout lists, predicting only one of the five would meet expectations. Hunter Greene managed to excel with a 6.3 WAR and a 2.75 ERA, significantly better than his previous career averages. C.J. Abrams began on a high note, boasting a .268/.343/.489 line in the first half, but ultimately, that risk didn’t pay off.
While I’m optimistic about a Jordan Walker breakout upon his return from a knee injury, I’m concerned that his trajectory might parallel that of “Rickie Weeks.” The other players from my list, Luis Campusano and Maikel Garcia, faced their struggles, with Campusano’s defensive framing issues limiting his playtime and Garcia showing a steep decline despite lowering his strikeout rate.
Ivan Herrera, C, St. Louis Cardinals
I’ve always been a believer in Herrera’s batting skills. He showcased a great swing and demonstrated the ability to make hard contact during limited appearances last season. In fact, his hard-hit rate and exit velocities align with the MLB median for catchers. After contributing 1.7 bWAR in just under half a season of play last year, I anticipate he could double this output if he receives ample at-bats this year. However, his struggles with controlling the running game may hinder his playing time as the Cardinals prioritize catcher defense post-Yadier Molina.
Jo Adell, OF, Los Angeles Angels
If Adell manages to break out this year, or at all, it would be a remarkable comeback after the Angels rushed him to the majors in 2020. In 2024, he played regularly for the first time and achieved his best season yet, accruing 0.9 WAR and reducing his strikeout rate to a more acceptable 27.9 percent with a 90 wRC+, which marked his best performance. Although he struggled against fastballs, I believe this is a statistical anomaly and expect his overall improvements in contact and hard-hit rates to continue this year.
Junior Caminero, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
Having been the No. 3 prospect in baseball heading into 2024, there’s no doubt about Caminero’s hitting potential. While some might question if his status as a prospect disqualifies him from my breakout list, I believe he’ll demonstrate his talent this season. I anticipate nothing less than a 4 WAR performance, particularly with the Rays playing at Steinbrenner Field, which favors left-handed power hitters.
Spencer Arrighetti, RHP, Houston Astros
It surprised me how Arrighetti’s four-seam fastball underperformed last year, especially given its potential. With a high hard-hit rate, his pitch struggled, primarily due to poor location. However, he has the ability to miss bats and showed no platoon issues. Last season, he generated 0.3 bWAR; with improved pitch sequencing and location, I expect his WAR to significantly increase.
James Wood, OF, Washington Nationals
My prediction for Wood includes hitting thirty homers alongside striking out 190 times. I expect him to hit a significant number of balls hard, although his large strike zone may pose challenges as pitchers exploit it. I believe he is a better defender than his previous major league performance indicated, having demonstrated good defensive skills in the minors.
