While the top four teams in Formula 1 are engaged in a kind of debate about their current standing, they all share one consensus.
Despite differing opinions on the hierarchy, none of them consider McLaren to be leading the pack.
Mercedes sees Red Bull as the benchmark; Red Bull considers itself fourth behind Ferrari, Mercedes, and McLaren; Ferrari views Mercedes and Red Bull as slightly ahead; while McLaren identifies Ferrari and Mercedes as the frontrunners.
Does this mean that the reigning champions are genuinely trailing at the onset of this new regulatory era?
Or have they skillfully maintained a low profile while others seem hesitant to assert themselves?
Currently, there’s no clear answer as interpreting team performance from testing is especially complex due to varying energy management strategies.
The Pace Story
The analysis of long-run data aligns with McLaren’s own statements, indicating that they are not in as strong a position as they were last year, when they had an early advantage.
Oscar Piastri has stated that they will not be the team to beat as they were in 2025, remarking, “We’re certainly not going to come out and have the performance we had in Melbourne last year.”
Race simulations conducted during the final day of the Bahrain test elucidate why this conclusion is drawn, showing McLaren’s struggles in comparison to others.
Where McLaren Is Playing Catch-Up
The notion of Ferrari and Mercedes being ‘ready’ reflects an ongoing sentiment from the first tests about teams’ understanding of the new regulations.
It appears that longstanding teams like Mercedes and Ferrari have a significant head start in knowing how to optimize their car’s performance.
McLaren’s chief designer, Rob Marshall, acknowledged that the customer teams like McLaren need to get up to speed in understanding their engines.
Piastri noted that the performance gap between teams that can effectively manage their setups and those that cannot is substantial, complicating the overall competitive landscape.
Nevertheless, McLaren has a few days left to improve and potentially shift this narrative before the season officially begins.
Marshall maintained confidence that the performance gap between works teams and customer teams will close quickly as everyone gains real-time data from their cars.
