Craig Breslow has made significant strides in revitalizing the Red Sox pitching staff since his hiring. In just two offseasons, he has transformed the team’s rotation by actively acquiring top-tier talent, including Garrett Crochet, a standout pitcher, along with recent All-Stars Sonny Gray and Ranger Suárez. Additionally, a combination of strategic depth additions and the development of internal prospects has resulted in an unprecedented level of starting pitching depth for the Sox, something I’ve never seen in my time as a fan.
Assuming no trades or unexpected injuries occur (let’s hope the players stay safe!), the Red Sox are set to enter Spring Training with TEN MLB-quality starting pitchers. This depth has led FanGraphs to project that Red Sox starters will lead the league in starting pitching fWAR.
Currently, the FanGraphs projections reveal that while projections are beneficial, they can overlook important nuances. For instance, Johan Oviedo and Patrick Sandoval are projected for only 80 and 54 innings, respectively, due to their recent recoveries from Tommy John surgery. However, we are aware that both are expected to be healthy for Spring Training. Similarly, the idea that neither Connelly Early nor Patyon Tolle would pitch at least 30 innings seems implausible.
Rather than relying solely on projections, I examined the last five seasons to see which teams led in starting pitching fWAR to gain insights into building a successful rotation. Could the 2026 Red Sox potentially join this elite group?
2025: Philadelphia Phillies, 21.5 WAR
How did they do it? Surprisingly, the 2025 Phillies broke the mold that depth alone is key. Their rotation, aside from Aaron Nola, who battled injuries, was notably healthy, as they relied primarily on only six starting pitchers throughout the season. Four of those pitchers excelled, with Christopher Sanchez leading the way.
2024: Atlanta Braves, 17.4 WAR
How did they do it? The 2024 Braves had a solid rotation with five pitchers making at least 21 starts. Unlike the Phillies, they featured just one ace in Chris Sale, but good health among their mid-rotation arms helped them succeed despite injuries to other key players.
2023: Philadelphia Phillies, 17.4 WAR
How did they do it? This rotation looked more like the Braves than the 2025 Phillies. Featuring an ace in Zack Wheeler, they showcased a dependable group that managed to stay healthy throughout the season, which proved vital for their success.
Conclusion
To position the 2026 Red Sox for a top rotation, healthy performance from Garrett Crochet will be crucial, as having at least one standout pitcher is essential based on past successful rotations. Furthermore, it’s notable that successful teams often use only about six primary pitchers across a season. The depth the Sox have amassed could be leveraged if other starters can provide quality innings when needed.
