Hello, Viva El Birdos! I’m enthusiastic to discuss some of the Cardinals’ hitters today, but let me introduce myself first. I’ve been a reader of VEB for over ten years and owe much of my understanding of baseball analytics to this site’s writers and community. The high standards of this community inspire me to share thought-provoking content. Although I had a passing knowledge of baseball in the late ’90s, I became a fervent Cardinals fan in 2001. This timing explains why I can be overwhelmingly optimistic about the team. Though the last three seasons have been challenging, my experience has mostly revolved around their success, a strong farm system, and an effective front office. I’m eager to analyze the direction that Chaim Bloom and his team are taking. Now, let’s dive into hitting!
Interview Insights In a discussion with Randy Karraker, Bloom shared his perspective on what it takes for hitters to succeed, outlining three key areas: 1) swing choices, 2) contact rates, and 3) performance upon making contact. He stressed that excelling in all three makes a player elite; doing well in two guarantees a lengthy career, while only performing well in one means they’ll need to be strong defensively. Essentially, the evaluation revolves around swing decisions, contact, and damage. While this framework may seem straightforward, it provides a clear understanding of hitter performance. Both Rob Cerfolio and Chaim Bloom often discuss identifying a player’s “superpowers” and enhancing their unique strengths. Using this framework, I’ve tried to assess how the current Cardinals are faring in these categories compared to the league.
Metrics for Analysis I’m interested in hearing other suggestions for measuring swing decisions, contact, and damage, but here’s my approach:
- Swing Decisions: I assessed the ratio of correct decisions made by a player. Specifically, out of 100 pitches, how often does a player swing at strikes and take balls? Corey Seager led all MLB players with at least 300 plate appearances, making correct decisions 74.1% of the time. With a stat named after him (SEAGER: Selective Aggression Engagement Rate), I feel confident about this measure.
- Contact: I focused on in-zone contact. While one could argue for assessing overall contact or factoring in out-of-zone contact, that often overlaps with swing decisions. A player who seldom swings at out-of-zone balls will generally have a higher contact rate than someone with equal contact skills who swings more freely.
- Damage: I ultimately chose xwOBACON, which estimates expected damage on balls put in play, excluding strikeouts and walks. This was tricky, as evaluating exit velocities alone could give undue credit to players like Jordan Walker, who hit hard ground balls yet fail to elevate the ball for substantial production. The “barrels metric,” which looks at exit velocity and launch angle, while close to my goal, is often inconsistent for single-season evaluations. For example, Nick Allen and Chandler Simpson recorded no barrels in 2025, which likely misrepresents their abilities.
After settling on these three metrics, I evaluated every player with at least 300 plate appearances in 2025 and assigned grades akin to the 20-80 scouting scale, where 50 denotes average, 60 indicates one standard deviation above average, and so forth. Below, you’ll find the leading players in each category: damage, decision-making, and contact.
A standout example is Aaron Judge, who scored a remarkable 91 in the damage category with an xwOBACON of .590 versus the cohort average of .374. With a standard deviation of .052, Judge stands an impressive 4.1 standard deviations above average.
Cardinals’ Performance Before examining the Cardinals’ hitters, let’s look at the top three and bottom three performers across MLB in these categories.
Upon analyzing the players, several surprising insights emerged:
- Victor Scott excels at making swing decisions; improving his contact and damage metrics could reveal a league-average hitter.
- I was taken aback by Nootbaar’s below-average score in swing decision-making, largely due to his low rate of swings on pitches in the zone (55.4%). Despite being adept at avoiding pitches outside the zone (21.5%), he struggled to increase his in-zone swing percentage effectively.
- Nolan Gorman demonstrates a potentially playable decision and contact profile if he can maintain elite contact performance. However, his average exit velocities dampen my optimism.
- Willson Contreras stands out as the sole player achieving a full plus grade for damage on contact. Both Herrera and Burleson rank above average across all three metrics.
- Jordan Walker faces challenges with poor swing decisions and contact ability, alongside an inability to produce damage on contact, despite possessing impressive exit velocity metrics.
This analysis raises further questions: What areas are feasible for a player’s improvement? With experience, can someone like Walker enhance his swing decisions? Could Victor Scott, with offseason training, elevate his exit velocities? Masyn Winn’s near-average exit velocity raises questions about his potential for growth. While uncertainties remain, there’s talent to nurture, and hopefully, the systems in place can encourage significant breakthroughs.
