TOPSHOT – A monk walks past a collapsed building in Mandalay on April 1, 2025, shortly after the devastating earthquake in Myanmar.
Sai Aung Main | AFP | Getty Images
The military regime in Myanmar is attempting to capitalize on the recent deadly earthquake as a means to reassert its authority amid an ongoing civil war. However, experts believe a lasting ceasefire is unlikely.
The 7.7 magnitude earthquake occurred two weeks ago, marking one of the most powerful quakes to hit Myanmar in a century, further complicating a nation already torn apart by civil conflict, which has displaced millions and severely harmed its economy.
The official death toll has reached 3,471 as of Sunday, with many others injured or unaccounted for. Predictions from the U.S. Geological Survey suggest the death toll could rise above 10,000, while economic damages could surpass the annual GDP of the nation, estimated at $66.8 billion in 2023.
In response to the earthquake, the junta declared a state of emergency in the most affected cities, requesting international aid—a notable change from their reaction to Cyclone Nargis in 2008, when they initially rejected outside help, leading to over 84,000 deaths and tens of thousands missing.
This shift has led to cautious optimism for potential political negotiations between the regime and resistance forces, as past natural disasters have sometimes spurred peace talks. For instance, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami resulted in a truce agreement between the Indonesian government and local insurgents to facilitate relief operations. Nevertheless, experts assert that the chances for a similar agreement in post-earthquake Myanmar are slim.
“The divisions are too deeply ingrained, and there isn’t enough common ground for the junta and opposition, including various ethnic armed groups, to engage in productive dialogue,” stated Angshuman Choudhury, a foreign policy analyst based in Singapore. He anticipates that any ceasefire declared will likely be short-lived and at risk of violations due to the heightened tensions in the region, predicting that the junta will use this moment to weaken resistance forces and bolster its position on the battlefield.
Recently, the military announced a 20-day ceasefire effective until April 22 to facilitate humanitarian efforts, cautioning that they would “respond accordingly” if the rebels launched attacks.
The military junta has made it clear through ongoing airstrikes that defeating the resistance takes precedence over disaster relief.
Scott Marciel
Former U.S. ambassador to Myanmar
Since the military coup in 2021, Myanmar has been embroiled in a severe political and humanitarian crisis, leading to a multi-front civil war that has displaced 3.5 million people and left the economy in ruins.
Some analysts caution that the earthquake could further entrench Myanmar as a failed state. Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, highlighted that the junta’s inadequate response to the disaster will likely fuel public anger and support for opposition groups, as it showcases the regime’s failure to function beyond its violent tactics.
The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) organization has labeled Myanmar the second-most violent country in the world last year, with about 90% of the population affected by political violence and lacking essential services like electricity, healthcare, and education.
The earthquake has struck at a critical moment for the junta, which has faced significant military setbacks. The aftermath of the disaster is pressing the regime to consider its priorities—whether to continue waging civil war or to address urgent humanitarian needs. However, despite the temporary ceasefire, significant political movement toward peace is not expected, as humanitarian concerns alone cannot address the underlying political rift.
In the weeks leading up to the ceasefire announcement, the junta had remained aggressive, conducting airstrikes in areas affected by the quake. Furthermore, its security measures have restricted humanitarian efforts, including blocking aid to areas controlled by anti-government forces, leading to warning shots fired at a Chinese Red Cross convoy that did not comply with military orders.
Nonetheless, the earthquake has created a diplomatic opening for the junta, as its leader seeks to engage with regional powers like China, India, and Southeast Asian nations ahead of the planned election in December. Choudhury noted that the junta is attempting to leverage the disaster to enhance its diplomatic standing and assert its role as the legitimate governance of Myanmar.
During a recent visit to Thailand, junta chief Min Aung Hlaing received a warm reception from Thai officials despite being largely isolated from global diplomacy. He discussed post-earthquake recovery efforts and strengthened ties with leaders such as Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
China was among the first to offer aid, committing $13.7 million in supplies, while the U.S. pledged a more modest $9 million in humanitarian aid. This diplomatic interaction may represent an unexpected chance for the junta to gain favor leading up to the election, which experts deem a facade to maintain military authority through proxy governance amidst widespread criticism of the electoral process.
