Concerns are escalating in Sumy Oblast due to reports of a potential Russian summer offensive and troop buildups at Ukraine’s border. There is growing fear that a large-scale attack may be imminent.
On May 22, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced he had instructed his military to establish a “security buffer zone” along the border. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that around 50,000 Russian soldiers were concentrated “toward Sumy.”
A source from Ukraine’s defense forces informed the Kyiv Independent that these are specialized combat units, including airborne troops and marines, repositioned to counter Ukrainian forces.
Although Russian troops have already initiated limited offensive actions and seized a few villages in the region, insights from soldiers and experts indicate that the full scope of the Kremlin’s plans remains uncertain.
With restricted journalistic access in Sumy Oblast imposed by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) since the withdrawal from Kursk Oblast, little information has been shared by the Ukrainian military regarding the frontline situation. The military command in Kursk Oblast declined to comment, citing “limited” ability to discuss local conditions.
Sumy Oblast and the Kursk Operation
Warnings about a renewed Russian offensive in Sumy Oblast follow two months after Ukrainian forces had to withdraw from the strategically important Kursk Oblast after losing the vital logistics town of Sudzha. Following Ukraine’s costly retreat, Russian forces gained momentum and started raiding Sumy Oblast, hindering Kyiv’s ability to regroup and strengthen defenses.
The Ukrainian Troops on the Ground
Ukrainian soldiers on the ground are preparing for challenging circumstances. After months of intense combat in the Kursk salient, their capacity to hold the defenses in Sumy rests on their ability to reinforce the area, especially given a manpower crunch. Local authorities acknowledged on May 26 that four border villages—Novenke, Zhuravka, Veselivka, and Basivka—had already been captured by Russian forces.
Russian tactics now involve deploying small assault groups that use “fast movement” strategies with quad bikes, as noted by a deputy company commander of the 80th Air Assault Brigade. The military’s spokesperson also confirmed a continuous push by Russian troops, particularly around Zhuravka and Basivka, though losses are reported to be significant.
How Far Does Russia Plan to Advance into Sumy Oblast?
The extent of Russia’s planned advance into Sumy Oblast remains unclear. Observers have noted a gradual capture of border villages over recent weeks. As reported on May 20, Russian forces appear to be reinforcing their positions along the border, although incursions so far involve small infantry squads with equipment like quad bikes.
Meanwhile, civilian evacuations are underway in Sumy Oblast, which has faced consistent Russian attacks since 2022, particularly intensifying after the Kursk incursion. As of May 19, Governor Oleh Hryhorov reported that nearly 56,000 residents had been evacuated under mandatory orders.
Though Russian forces are likely to persist with localized offensive actions in the northern areas of Sumy, experts believe that the eastern Donbas region will remain Moscow’s primary target. Predictions suggest that while Sumy Oblast may see continued conflict, it is unlikely to become a major focal point of a Russian summer offensive.
Despite ongoing tensions, Ukrainian defense forces are characterizing the control situation near the border as “normal” and maintain that daily life in Sumy continues, even amidst nightly drone strikes. However, the significant troop presence nearby keeps Ukrainian soldiers vigilant, with some troops unsure of the likelihood of an impending offensive.
