Which Team Among the Jazz, Wizards, Hornets, and Pelicans is Least Likely to Finish with a Bottom-Three Record? And Which Team Should Get the 1st Overall Pick?
Marilyn Dubinski: Among these four teams, the Pelicans have the best chance of avoiding the bottom three, largely due to Zion Williamson’s impact on the court. However, his inconsistent availability is a concern, especially after losing another key player, Trey Murphy III, for the season. The Jazz, based on their recent performance, seem destined for the bottom ranks, but predicting outcomes is tricky. From a Spurs perspective, having the Pelicans claim the top pick would be the least desirable outcome since a healthy Zion could lead them to success. Ideally, I’d like to see Cooper Flagg go to an Eastern team, and I find myself supporting the Wizards over the Hornets, partly due to personal biases related to LaMelo Ball.
Mark Barrington: After the trade deadline, the Wizards may not be a great team, but they have definitely improved. They could potentially rank above the Jazz, possibly landing in the fourth worst position. The lottery odds are somewhat forgiving, with only a slight difference between being fourth and among the bottom three for the chance at the first pick. Should Zion remain healthy, the Pelicans could disrupt this scenario by winning more games. There’s a 54.5% chance that one of the bottom four will draft first, but there’s also a possibility that a team ranked 5-14 could secure it. I would personally prefer to see the Jazz get the first pick, as Will Hardy could benefit greatly from a young star.
Jacob Douglas: The Pelicans are my pick due to their promising record. The Wizards, however, are currently on a winning streak, boasting young, exciting players. With Zion Williamson performing well, the Pelicans are likely to achieve some victories. If the Spurs miss out on the top pick, I would favor Washington as a landing spot for Cooper Flagg, as he would help establish direction for the franchise moving forward.
Bill Huan: The Pelicans stand at a good position in the tanking race, and with Zion healthy, they could see more victories ahead. Although they might choose to rest him later in the season, they still have other players like CJ McCollum contributing significantly. Of the teams mentioned, I would love for the Wizards to get the top pick as they lack a true star and would benefit immensely from a talent like Cooper Flagg.
Devon Birdsong: The Jazz, who are currently enduring a ten-game losing streak, are likely to remain in the bottom three. Their chances of improving depend on other teams like the Wizards and Pelicans, influenced heavily by Zion’s health. His contract situation suggests he may perform well to secure his future, likely captivating fans and management with his potential.
Will the Spurs Slide Down to the Bottom-Five Without Fox or Stay in Their Current Position?
Dubinski: I believe the Spurs will stay just outside the play-in spots. Their remaining schedule is challenging, but I expect them to achieve over 30 wins. They are unlikely to fall behind teams like Toronto, Brooklyn, or Philadelphia, especially with the latter likely prioritizing tanking. My guess is they will finish in the 7th to 10th range.
Barrington: The Spurs face a tough road ahead, facing many playoff-bound teams, which will likely skew their win-loss record negatively. Competing against adept tanking teams, it might be difficult for the Spurs to accrue the losses necessary to approach the lower spots, and my prediction is that they may land with the 8th or 9th-best lottery odds.
Douglas: The odds don’t favor the Spurs, as they are significantly behind the Nets for the fifth-worst record, with limited games left to make a recovery. My hunch is that they will land in the 8th or 9th position, and while they can still obtain a good player, it won’t be at the top-tier level that top-4 picks would offer.
Huan: The Spurs likely have a unique standing, above teams like the Bulls, Heat, and Trail Blazers, but not bad enough to reach the bottom tier with Toronto, Brooklyn, or Philly, who all have better odds of obtaining high draft picks. It’s too late in the season to expect the Spurs to catch up.
Birdsong: I think only the Raptors, aiming for the play-in, have the skills to surpass the Spurs. The Heat are struggling, and it will be interesting to see if the Spurs can outlast them in the tanking race, especially since both are only a win apart.
Is There Still a Chance for the Spurs in the Play-In, and Which of the Mavericks, Suns, or Trail Blazers Do You Want to See Advance?
Dubinski: I don’t see the Spurs having the discipline to secure a play-in position without Fox and Wemby. They might push themselves, but I doubt that’s their objective. While I admire the Mavs for their persistence, they lack the adequate lineup to stay competitive. Ideally, I think the Suns should capitalize on their talent if they rally to perform as expected.
Barrington: There’s certainly a slim chance for the Spurs to make the play-in, but even if they did, it wouldn’t serve them well. I’d love to see the Trail Blazers rally and surpass both the dysfunctional Mavs and Suns for the final play-in spot, only to meet an inevitable defeat in the tournament.
Douglas: It seems the Spurs aren’t keen on the last play-in spot, and my bet is on the Suns to rise above and take that chance as they outright possess more talent than other competitors.
Huan: Absolutely not! The Spurs won’t make the play-in, nor should they want to. I’d like to see both the Mavs and Suns compete for the last spot—it would be amusing to watch a team full of stars potentially capture a place against a lesser team.
Birdsong: Do the Spurs still have a chance? It’s hard to say something witty here that’s better than the question itself. But I’m rooting for the Trail Blazers and the Mavericks to succeed, as it would exhibit the front office’s questionable decision-making and keep the excitement alive in the race for the last spot.
