Rick Pitino and John Calipari, renowned figures in college basketball, are set to clash as they vie to lead their teams into the Sweet 16. Pitino’s No. 2 seed St. John’s Red Storm will face off against the No. 10 seed Arkansas Razorbacks in the second round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament this Saturday. St. John’s (31-4) aims for its first Sweet 16 appearance since 1999, marking Pitino’s sixth unique program to reach the NCAA Tournament—an unparalleled achievement in NCAA history. Meanwhile, Arkansas (21-13) seeks to return to the Sweet 16 for the fourth time in five years, with Calipari at the helm for the first time at the school. The availability of Arkansas’ leading scorer, Adou Thiero (knee), remains uncertain after he missed the first round.
The game, scheduled to tip off at 2:40 p.m. ET at Amica Mutual Pavilion in Providence, R.I., features St. John’s as 7.5-point favorites according to the latest odds from the SportsLine Consensus, with an over/under of 144.5 total points. Before finalizing any predictions for the Arkansas vs. St. John’s matchup, consider checking the college basketball forecasts provided by the SportsLine Projection Model.
This model runs simulations of every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times and comes into the 2025 NCAA Tournament with a record of 228 wins and 166 losses (+2025) for all top-rated college basketball picks since 2023. Furthermore, this model has generated brackets that have outperformed over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four out of the past six tournaments, successfully predicting 24 first-round upsets involving double-digit seeds. Followers of this model have witnessed substantial returns.
The model has its attention fixated on the matchup between St. John’s and Arkansas, having finalized its predictions for March Madness. You can access the model’s picks right now at SportsLine. Below are the relevant odds and lines for the Arkansas vs. St. John’s game:
- Spread: St. John’s -7.5
- Over/Under: 144.5 points
- Money Line: St. John’s -313, Arkansas +250
- St. John’s record against the spread (ATS) in last nine games: 7-2
- Arkansas’ record ATS in last five games as an underdog: 4-1
- Picks for St. John’s vs. Arkansas: Find picks at SportsLine
St. John’s Strong Performance
Pitino’s inspiring halftime speech from earlier in the season gained significant attention through a documentary covering his second year at St. John’s, and revisiting that speech might be beneficial. The Red Storm dominated in the second half of their first-round game against Omaha, outscoring them 50-25 in an 83-53 victory. This success stems largely from their impressive defensive performance, as evidenced by their national ranking, sitting 22nd in scoring defense at just 65.5 points allowed per game.
RJ Luis Jr., the junior guard and Big East Player of the Year, excelled with 22 points and eight rebounds against Omaha, hitting 5 of 8 attempts from beyond the arc. He also shone in the Big East Championship, scoring 29 points and grabbing 10 rebounds. With a national average scoring margin of +13.3, the Red Storm have demonstrated a formidable presence under Pitino, who boasts a .723 win percentage (55-21 record) in NCAA Tournament history, including two national championships and seven Final Fours.
Arkansas’s Resilience
Despite facing challenges early in the SEC season with five consecutive losses, many doubted the Razorbacks’ chances at advancing to the Sweet 16. However, under Calipari, the Razorbacks’ lineup evolved significantly, culminating in four wins in their last five SEC contests, leading to an at-large bid following a 1-1 record in the SEC Tournament. Arkansas garnered attention with an upset victory over Kansas, winning 79-72 in the first round thanks in part to senior forward Jonas Aidoo, who contributed 22 points.
In a notable first-round performance, freshman Boogie Fland, ranked No. 20 in the Class of 2024 by 247 Sports, returned to action after thumb surgery and made a noticeable impact, scoring six points, along with three assists and three steals. Fland, who averaged 14.6 points per game over 19 appearances, adds depth to an Arkansas squad led by fifth-year senior guard Johnell Davis, bringing valuable NCAA Tournament experience from his time at Florida Atlantic.
Making Predictions for St. John’s vs. Arkansas
According to SportsLine’s model, the total score is expected to go Over, projecting a combined tally of 146 points. The model has also produced an against-the-spread pick that has performed well over 50% of the time in simulations. You can see the model’s selections exclusively at SportsLine.
Who will prevail in the matchup between Arkansas and St. John’s, and which side of the spread shows strong performance in the majority of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread to support, backed by a model that has generated over $2,000 in profit from top-rated college basketball picks.
