Prepare to set aside your assumptions about Formula 1. In 2026, everything changes: the cars, the engines, the regulations, and the established hierarchy that Lando Norris understood last season might no longer apply.
The season of uncertainties will kick off this weekend, March 8, at the Australian Grand Prix. Below, our writers have shared their forecasts for the year ahead.
Constructors’ Podium (Top 3 Teams)
Luke Smith: Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren. Mercedes appears to be the team to beat after solid preseason testing, despite Ferrari posting competitive times. The top four teams will likely be in a tight battle, but Mercedes will secure the top spot.
Madeline Coleman: Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren. The strong performance from the Mercedes engine during testing caught my attention, but Ferrari seems more competitive this season. However, I don’t think it will be enough to surpass Mercedes.
Michael Bailey: McLaren, Mercedes, Ferrari. Other teams reacted to Mercedes’ engine strength, with McLaren benefitting as a Mercedes customer and riding a recent winning streak. Ferrari will be close but won’t have enough to top the competition.
Alex Kalinauckas: Mercedes, McLaren, Ferrari. Given Mercedes’ strong showing and McLaren’s championship title, this could be a close race between them. Ferrari may look competitive initially, but I foresee Red Bull remaining a one-car team.
Patrick Iversen: Mercedes, McLaren, Ferrari. The season will be competitive, but I believe Mercedes and McLaren possess the most promising engines and solid driver lineups.
Drivers’ Podium (Top 3 in the Championship)
Smith: George Russell, Charles Leclerc, Max Verstappen. Russell has demonstrated he could win the championship, and this year, Mercedes should provide him with a competitive car.
Coleman: Russell, Verstappen, Leclerc. All three drivers have the potential to compete for the championship, depending on their cars. Russell seems well-equipped this year, but Verstappen should never be counted out.
Bailey: Norris, Russell, Leclerc. Norris, now with championship experience, is stepping closer to being a complete driver. Russell’s lack of experience might hinder him, while Verstappen, Oscar Piastri, and Lewis Hamilton could be just behind these three.
Kalinauckas: Russell, Norris, Verstappen. Russell has the talent for a championship, and if Norris wins, it’ll solidify his position, though Piastri remains a strong contender. Verstappen’s capability can never be overlooked.
Iversen: Russell, Verstappen, Leclerc. Russell has been quietly demonstrating championship-level talent. Verstappen’s consistency ensures he’s a forcing factor, and a stronger Ferrari will allow Leclerc to shine.
Best of the Rest (5th Place Constructor)
Smith: Haas. Despite being one of F1’s smaller teams, Haas proved it has a solid foundation for this season, especially with quick drivers Oliver Bearman and Esteban Ocon.
Coleman: Haas. Haas demonstrated an ability to fight for points last year. While Alpine and Racing Bulls are also in contention, consistency will be key for Haas.
Bailey: Haas. With dependable drivers and a strong Ferrari engine, I’m backing Haas despite some concerns about their long-term development capabilities.
Kalinauckas: Alpine. I expect Alpine will perform well given its Mercedes engine, although they may just remain on the fringes of the top four.
Iversen: Haas. I have reservations about Alpine’s consistency, but Haas has shown solid performance in the last 18 months.
Worst of the Worst (11th Place Constructor)
Smith: My pick is Cadillac, but that feels harsh given they entered the grid only recently. They’ll likely start ahead of Aston Martin but may find themselves at the bottom.
Coleman: Aston Martin. Preseason testing was a nightmare for Aston Martin, and they will struggle in the back alongside Cadillac for a while.
Bailey: Aston Martin. The Honda-powered Aston Martin is a mess, and fixing it will require more than just aerodynamic improvements.
Kalinauckas: Aston Martin. After such a poor preseason, recovering in a cost-capped environment will be exceptionally challenging.
Iversen: Cadillac. Despite Aston Martin’s issues, I trust their resources more than those of Cadillac for overcoming early-season challenges.
Surprise Outcomes
Smith: Predicting here feels random, but I’ll go with Gasly snagging pole in conditions favorable to his Alpine.
Coleman: Carlos Sainz Jr. After nearly capturing pole last year, Sainz could spring a surprise in upcoming races, depending on Williams’ performance.
Bailey: Isack Hadjar. Hadjar could rise to the occasion, potentially securing a stunning pole lap amid the changes this season.
Kalinauckas: Bearman. If Kevin Magnussen could take a pole, Bearman is also capable despite his recent challenges.
Iversen: Hamilton. It’s surprising considering his recent performance, but I suspect he’ll claim a pole at least once this year.
