Earlier this offseason, I utilized the Player Similarity tool in Statcast to pinpoint potential Hitter Sleepers for 2026 based on last year’s batted ball data. While identifying potential gems is always more enjoyable than spotting busts, I must admit that my track record for flagging underperformers continues to improve each year. Given the natural ups and downs of the game, it’s vital to highlight players that may be overvalued at their average draft positions (ADP).
It’s important to acknowledge that this system is not foolproof, as various factors may not be captured by the algorithm. Still, I leverage my experience to highlight some clear examples of players who might hinder your fantasy aspirations. Although I may miss on a few, I hope the objective approach proves useful in steering you clear of players who risk disappointing.
James Wood (OF, Washington Nationals) – ADP: 28
Top Comps: Bryan Reynolds, Roman Anthony, Brendan Rodgers, Oneil Cruz
Wood, at 23 and coming off a 31-homer season, may seem attractive at a top-25 ADP, but I would advise caution. His lack of any top-50 comparable players raises red flags, especially since his batting prowess is the cornerstone of his value. While there’s understandable hype surrounding him, that enthusiasm comes with significant risk.
His profile is further complicated by a worrying 32% strikeout rate, ranking him in the second percentile. This issue became particularly pronounced in the latter half of last season, suggesting he struggled to adapt to adjustments made by pitchers. Projections hint at a .250-.260 batting average with 25 HR and 17 SB, yet there are alternatives available later in the draft that could yield similar results.
Riley Greene (OF, Detroit Tigers) – ADP: 71
Top Comps: Byron Buxton, Rowdy Tellez, Will Benson, Jo Adell
Greene’s evolution into a power-focused player since his debut mirrors that of a character in a Pixar film. While there’s potential, the fact that two of his top comps rank over 600 in ADP raises concerns. His strikeout rate above 30% limits his viability, especially given his recent lack of speed on the bases.
Although projections are optimistic, expecting him to hit between .247 and .270 with 25-30 homers and solid run production, he faces stiff competition from other outfielders who are being drafted later yet may offer comparable upside. It’s worth noting that relying solely on his bat could result in opportunity costs at a crucial drafting phase.
Geraldo Perdomo (SS, Arizona Diamondbacks) – ADP: 75
Top Comps: Caleb Durbin, Nolan Schanuel, Jeff McNeil, Jung Hoo Lee
Perdomo’s current ADP puts him in a precarious position with comps that don’t suggest much power and potential downside risks. Although he showed improvement throughout the last season, his figures present a cautious outlook for 2026, where even maintaining previous production levels seems challenging based on projections.
The factors contributing to his volatility include poor HardHit% and bat speed, raising questions about his capability to repeat past performances. The value may not be there at ADP 75, especially when alternatives provide much safer options, making Perdomo less appealing.
