I foresee the end of the Trump bull market approaching. However, there are two important considerations regarding this prediction that require immediate attention.
First, I had forecasted less than three months ago that the S&P 500 (^GSPC 1.67%) would provide only a modest gain in 2026. Nevertheless, a principle of Bayesian statistics advocates for “updating your priors,” meaning initial thoughts should evolve with new information. My revised prediction reflects this adjustment.
Secondly, it’s worth noting that the current bull market isn’t solely attributed to Trump. The market rally kicked off in late 2022, during Joe Biden’s presidency. Nonetheless, since Trump has often claimed responsibility for market performance, I’ll generously link his name to this bull market (and the impending bear market as well).
In light of this, I believe the Trump bull market is nearing its conclusion. Fortunately for investors, some stocks will still rise amidst this shift.
Challenges Facing the Bull Market
What prompted my re-evaluation of previous market assumptions was the recent military action by the U.S. and Israel against Iran, especially the resulting disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Higher oil prices can lead to increases in a wide range of consumer goods, amplifying inflation concerns this year.
The producer price index (PPI), indicating wholesale prices, rose 3.4% year over year, exceeding economists’ expectations. Notably, this figure predates the Iran incident. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is slowing down, with fourth-quarter GDP growth for 2025 slipping to 1.4%. This slowdown includes job losses, as the economy shed 92,000 positions in February.
Stock Recommendations for Investors
Typically an optimist, I believe the Trump bull market is running out of steam. Still, I foresee three stocks that may perform well even if the market downturn occurs. First is Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA 1.24%) (BRKB 1.43%), which many see as a safe haven during uncertain times due to its substantial cash reserves, allowing for strategic investments as the market transitions.
Next, Enbridge (ENB +0.17%) is poised to thrive amid rising demand for U.S. oil and gas. As a leading pipeline operator, it plays a significant role in transporting essential resources while offering reliable utility stock performance with an impressive dividend yield of 5.2%.
Finally, Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX 4.58%) operates in the defensive healthcare sector, where demand remains stable even during market downturns. The company has a major edge in treating cystic fibrosis and is advancing a promising non-opioid pain medication. Vertex expects significant regulatory developments in the near future, providing further upside potential.
