UFC 316 Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
UFC 316 takes place in Newark, New Jersey, this Saturday, featuring two championship bouts within a 13-fight lineup. We will analyze each match across three platforms, introducing a former collegiate wrestler in his UFC debut, as well as a powerful welterweight aiming to create memorable moments. Our betting lines are sourced from the RotoWire MMA betting page, reflecting accuracy as of the article’s publication date.
UFC Picks on DraftKings
The odds in this matchup are quite skewed, making it easy to overlook that Julianna Pena previously claimed the title with a close split decision against Raquel Pennington last year. Despite her basic striking and worries surrounding her weight cut, Pena’s toughness might allow her to withstand the challenge posed by the Judo champion. Yet, her 23 percent takedown defense and submission losses to experienced kickboxers like Valentina Shevchenko and Germaine de Randamie cast doubt on her ability to handle a larger and stronger opponent.
Merab has become a reliable choice on DraftKings, averaging 119.2 fantasy points across 14 UFC fights. However, oddsmakers have shown cautious optimism, as this rematch with Sean O’Malley marks his first time as a greater than (-170) favorite in eight bouts. “The Machine” is distinct; deploying cardio and pressure rarely pushes a fighter beyond their limits, and given he hasn’t achieved a finish since 2021, O’Malley may deliver a decisive strike. After a recent bout, where a late body shot rendered Merab evasive, his remarkable toughness combined with grappling skills could lead him to another high-scoring victory.
In the heavyweight division, Waldo Cortes-Acosta is a fighter I might avoid until he shows improvement. Though he has displayed increased power and aggression, his style remains that of a wild striker willing to take damage for his own offense. It’s also notable that he has yet to face a dedicated wrestler in the Octagon. Although Spivac has faced knockout losses, Cortes-Acosta has only achieved six finishes out of 13 fights, which doesn’t scream “dominance.”
UFC Plays to Check on Prize Picks – Significant Strikes
Jeka Saragih UNDER 19.5 Significant Strikes, and Joshua Van OVER 80.5 Significant Strikes
Saragih is unpredictable and powerful, suggesting a quick fight. On the other hand, Joo Sang Yoo, a counter-fighter, waits for opponents to close in before launching significant strikes. Although he doesn’t have many finishes, Yoo has managed two KO/TKO victories in his last three wins, while Saragih has only gone to the judges once in 18 pro fights.
UFC Bets to Consider
Last week’s article highlighted my views on Andreas Gustafsson, whose strategy of applying relentless pressure carries risks, particularly against a heavyweight like Williams. If Gustafsson can’t find a way in and hold on, this fight could end quickly. In a seemingly unpredictable women’s flyweight fight, both Wang and Lipski are likely to engage intensely, with Lipski recently favoring wrestling while still maintaining over four significant strikes per minute. Their similar dimensions should make standing exchanges comfortable.
For more on UFC wagers, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC 316 this weekend. For the latest odds, visit the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
