UFC Vegas 324 Predictions:
This weekend, the UFC makes its much-anticipated return to Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena for UFC 324, broadcasted on Paramount. The event will feature the larger 30-foot octagon, with a full house of passionate fans in attendance.
Exciting news for fight fans: a Paramount subscription includes all fights for the year, marking the end of UFC pay-per-view events.
This fight card includes 13 matches, with five contested in the Welterweight division (170 pounds) and higher. Larger fighters typically have a greater chance of achieving finishes.
Out of the scheduled bouts, six involve a significant age gap of six years or more between opponents, with fighters under 26 enjoying a 62% win rate. Understanding each fighter’s age, recent opponents, and mental and physical prowess is essential for evaluating matchups.
While some international fighters are set to face U.S. competitors, only two fights feature athletes from abroad competing against American fighters, giving a home-cage advantage in just those matches, including the main event.
Now let’s analyze some intriguing matchups.
Paddy Pimblett -230 vs. Justin Gaethje +195
Interim Lightweight Title (155 pounds)
Paddy Pimblett, a popular mixed martial artist from Liverpool, England, began his MMA journey at 15. Known as “Paddy the Baddy,” he holds a second-degree black belt in BJJ and has shown an impressive ability to exploit opponent mistakes in the octagon.
Despite being an inch shorter than his opponent Justin Gaethje, Pimblett is expected to weigh significantly more than 170 pounds during the fight, utilizing his size effectively in grappling situations.
Pimblett remains undefeated in the UFC, though he narrowly won against Jared Gordon in a controversial decision. His popularity and submission skills make him an attractive figure for the UFC’s promotional endeavors.
Gaethje, a former “BMF” Champion and former interim lightweight champion, is known for his dangerous striking abilities and relentless aggression. He aims to maintain pressure on opponents, leveraging brutal leg kicks to set up powerful strikes.
What differentiates Gaethje from Pimblett is his extensive experience, facing top-level athletes consistently since 2019, whereas Pimblett has yet to compete at that level. For Pimblett to succeed, he will need to close the distance to neutralize Gaethje’s striking, while Gaethje will aim to keep the fight standing and capitalize on his powerful kickboxing.
Overall, the contrasting styles, competition experience, and age difference will play critical roles in determining the fight’s outcome.
Sean O’Malley -200 vs. Song Yadong +170
Bantamweight (135lbs) Co-Main Event
Song Yadong, currently ranked fifth in the bantamweight division, began training in Sambo at age nine before transitioning into MMA. Under the guidance of Uriah Faber at Team Alpha Male, Yadong developed strong wrestling capabilities to counter primarily striking opponents like Sean O’Malley.
O’Malley is renowned for his striking precision, and Yadong will need to close the distance to offset O’Malley’s striking strengths. This fight is pivotal for Yadong as a significant win could elevate him to a higher rank.
O’Malley, a former Bantamweight Champion, enjoys immense popularity among younger fans and possesses impressive agility and striking skills. Keeping the fight on his feet will be essential for O’Malley, as it allows him to utilize his advantages effectively.
The match is designed to provide O’Malley with a favorable opportunity ahead of a potential title shot. The spacious 30-foot octagon plays into O’Malley’s style, allowing him to evade strikes while landing his own.
In my view, O’Malley’s striking and movement will lead him to victory, keeping Yadong at bay, and he is currently priced favorably at -200.
Charles Johnson -200 vs. Alex Perez +170
Flyweight (125 pounds)
This matchup features Charles Johnson, a tall and active striker, against Alex Perez, a grappler with limited fight activity since 2020. Perez’s inactivity raises concerns, especially after a mixed recent record.
Johnson’s extensive experience and confidence heading into the fight position him as a solid contender despite his odds. His high activity level and striking acumen give him an edge over Perez, who faces a notable reach disadvantage.
UFC 324 Best Bet: Parlay Johnson -200/O’Malley -200
1 unit returns 1.25 units
Catch the ‘Bout Business Podcast available across all platforms and get my final predictions for UFC 324 at GambLou.com. Enjoy the fights!
