By: Cody Stavenhagen, Aaron Gleeman, Zack Meisel, Johnny Flores and Jim Bowden
In 2023, the American League Central recorded one of the lowest combined win percentages (.442) in the history of MLB’s divisional era, which started in 1969. The Minnesota Twins claimed the division title with a mere 87 wins, while the Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals faced dismal triple-digit loss numbers. The division appeared to offer minimal excitement and optimism.
However, the AL Central underwent a remarkable transformation, rapidly evolving into a competitive division in 2024, featuring four winning teams and comprising 75 percent of the participants in the ALDS. The White Sox, unfortunately, set a record with 121 losses. Nevertheless, the Twins managed a winning record despite injuries while the Royals and Detroit Tigers each secured 86 wins, successfully navigating past the wild-card round. The Cleveland Guardians captured the division title and advanced to the ALCS.
Looking ahead to 2025, a quiet offseason has led projection models, betting odds, and logical assessment to indicate that the same four teams (apologies to the White Sox) are set to compete for dominance within the AL Central.
Significant Additions
The Tigers’ main offensive addition, Torres, is expected to provide a solid bat to a young team. Although defensively and on the bases he might be lacking, he boasts a lifetime .334 on-base percentage and a 113 wRC+. Flaherty’s return to the Tigers after a trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers is notable, adding strength to their rotation alongside reigning Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal. Flaherty was impressive last season, averaging 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings.
Notable Departures
In his first full season as a starter, Crochet achieved a 3.58 ERA over 32 starts with 146 innings pitched, earning an AL All-Star nomination while being a key player for a struggling White Sox squad. His trade to the Red Sox for numerous prospects sets the stage for a more manageable field for the remaining AL Central teams. Meanwhile, the Royals traded pitcher Brady Singer for India, looking to boost their lineup with a player who ranked fifth in walk rate last season.
Key Matches to Watch
Dodgers at Royals, June 27-29: This matchup against the defending World Series champions could be a significant test for Kansas City. With stars such as Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman facing off against homegrown talents like Witt Jr. and Pasquantino, a series victory could bolster the Royals’ confidence leading into the All-Star break.
Guardians at Twins, Sept. 19-21: The Twins will need to conquer the reigning AL Central champions down the stretch to secure their playoff position, making this pivotal series vital for their postseason aspirations.
Analysis and Projections
Despite entering mid-August with a 70-53 record, the Twins faltered in the second half. With minimal roster changes, the same core players are being relied upon, including valuable pitching depth. Meanwhile, the Royals improved significantly last season, securing a playoff spot after a 30-game record increase. The Tigers aim to build on last year’s success, while the Guardians will strive to bolster their rotation. The White Sox, amid a rebuild, look to enhance their squad for a more competitive season ahead.
