The Trump administration has consistently asserted the need for the US to assert control over Greenland, citing “national security” as a justification. They have indicated a willingness to take action regarding the territory, stating they will act “whether they like it or not” .
This stance places the EU and NATO in a precarious position. Although Greenland is largely self-governed and not an EU member, Denmark is part of the bloc, and NATO’s defense guarantees cover the island through Denmark’s affiliation.
European leaders have strongly advocated for the sovereignty and territorial rights of Greenland and Denmark. However, there is currently no defined strategy on how to deter Trump or react if he pursues his claims.
Diplomacy and Arctic Security
European nations, particularly Denmark’s ambassador to the US, Jesper Møller Sørensen, and Greenland’s representative, Jacob Isbosethsen, have initiated lobbying efforts aimed at US lawmakers in hopes of dissuading the president from his ambitions regarding the island.
The diplomatic initiatives will also seek to address US security issues by emphasizing an existing US-Danish defense treaty from 1951, which was updated in 2004, that permits substantial strengthening of the US military presence on the island, including the establishment of new bases.
Economic Sanctions
The EU, comprising 450 million consumers, theoretically holds significant economic influence over the US and could consider retaliatory actions, such as closing US military installations in Europe or banning the purchase of US government bonds.
The most frequently discussed sanction is the EU’s anti-coercion instrument, dubbed the “trade bazooka,” granting the European Commission the authority to restrict US goods and services in the EU market. However, achieving consensus among member states on this measure seems unlikely given their desire to avoid economic repercussions and maintain US cooperation over issues like Ukraine.
Invest in Greenland
Greenland’s economy is heavily dependent on Danish subsidies, which amounted to around DKK4 billion (nearly €530 million) last year, covering roughly half of its public spending and representing about 20% of its GDP.
To counter Trump’s promised “billions” in investments, the EU could match those funds, aiming to prevent Greenland—which may seek independence from Denmark soon—from falling into America’s economic sphere.
Commit Troops
The above actions would take time, and it is uncertain if treaties or enhanced Arctic security would satisfy Trump’s ambitions. He has indicated that “ownership” of Greenland is “psychologically needed for success,” according to a recent New York Times interview.
In a recommendation from the Bruegel think tank, experts suggest that EU nations should proactively safeguard Greenland against US expansion. They argue for deploying European troops on the island in coordination with Copenhagen and Nuuk as a demonstration of commitment to Greenland’s territorial integrity, complicating any potential US annexation.
There’s a sense that while military confrontation would be undesirable, the implications of the US capturing troops from its closest allies would severely impact US credibility and its international standing.
