Cryptocurrencies faced a challenging year in 2025, but there may be substantial long-term prospects ahead.
Bitcoin (BTC 0.23%) remains the largest cryptocurrency globally, boasting a market capitalization exceeding $1.9 trillion, which represents over half of the total crypto market value.
Ark Investment Management, led by renowned tech investor Cathie Wood, released a projection last year estimating Bitcoin could reach $1.5 million per coin by 2030, based on three significant drivers. However, during a November interview with CNBC, Wood adjusted Ark’s estimate down to $1.2 million, indicating that innovations like stablecoins are absorbing some value previously attributed to Bitcoin.
Despite this revision, the potential increase of 1,159% from Bitcoin’s recent price of $95,300 raises the question: Should investors consider buying now?
Three Key Drivers for Bitcoin’s Rise
Bitcoin posted an extraordinary return of 22,100% over the past decade, surpassing all major asset categories like stocks, real estate, and precious metals. However, it lacks widespread utility, as it’s not commonly accepted for transactions nor integrated into major payment networks like XRP.
Furthermore, Wood’s recent price target revision stems from the popularity of stablecoins, which offer a stable way to transfer money globally. In 2024, stablecoins recorded an impressive $15.6 trillion in annual payment volume, surpassing both Visa and Mastercard. Bitcoin’s traction in this area is minimal, with most of its appeal stemming from its perception as a store of value.
Bitcoin’s decentralized nature prevents outside manipulation, and its capped supply of 21 million coins bolsters the perception of scarcity. It is built on a secure, transparent blockchain system. Ark Invest identifies six factors that could stimulate Bitcoin’s growth, with three primary drivers being particularly influential:
- Institutional Investment: Ark predicts that the rise of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will significantly boost Bitcoin investment from institutional sources, potentially representing around 6.5% of their assets or approximately $13 trillion by 2030.
- Emerging Market Currency: Bitcoin’s accessibility allows those in developing countries to use it as a hedge against inflation, driven by the devaluation of their local currencies.
- Digital Gold: Ark believes Bitcoin could capture a substantial portion, roughly 60% or $19 trillion, of the total above-ground gold reserves valued at $32 trillion.
These factors, according to Ark’s financial modeling, could elevate Bitcoin to around $1.2 million per coin by 2030.
Evaluating Cathie Wood’s Price Target
Bitcoin closed 2025 down 6%, while gold surged by 64%. While more investors might be viewing Bitcoin as a credible store of value, many still gravitate towards gold amid economic instability. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could lose its stature as digital gold, undermining one of Ark’s significant future upside arguments.
This scenario could also influence institutional investments, as the demand for spot ETFs—managing about $120 billion in assets—would hinge on increasing Bitcoin value expectations. A $1.2 million Bitcoin would imply a market cap of $25.2 trillion, surpassing the value of the largest corporation, Nvidia, currently valued at $4.5 trillion. For context, the entire U.S. economy was approximately $31 trillion last year.
Given Bitcoin’s recent performance, I question the feasibility of Ark’s prediction. If buying Bitcoin is primarily to access a digital form of gold, it might be more prudent to invest in gold or a related ETF, given gold’s proven ability to outperform Bitcoin in critical market conditions.
