Unexpected Decline of the Tampa Bay Rays
By John Romano
Tampa Bay Times
(TNS)
TAMPA — The downturn of the Tampa Bay Rays in 2024 caught many by surprise. They had just enjoyed five straight postseason appearances and were considered among the top contenders for the American League pennant.
The dip in 2025 felt less shocking. By that point, Shane McClanahan was sidelined, Wander Franco’s absence left a mark, and the team had traded away Zach Eflin and Isaac Paredes. Now, in 2026, the low expectations are becoming a familiar narrative.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Tampa Bay ranks just outside the middle tier and leads the lower tier for World Series odds in 2026. While this might not seem promising, it feels quite accurate. Though it’s early to dismiss 2026 before spring training, having a realistic outlook is crucial.
Similar to a decade ago, following the exits of Andrew Friedman and Joe Maddon, the Rays are reassessing their strategy. The major overhaul they underwent in 2015 took years to finalize, while current changes appear more like a renovation. Their recent moves indicate a focus on gearing up for a more promising period in 2028.
The Rays are not ignoring the 2026 season or the 2027 season, which is expected to face labor disruptions. However, their prospects should improve as their revitalized farm system begins to deliver more talent. The trade involving Shane Baz reflects this approach, as the Rays swapped a promising but inconsistent pitcher for five prospects.
Despite parting ways with several high-salary players, this strategy could yield better results in 2026. Tampa Bay is pursuing more athletic players, even if that means sacrificing some power. With the addition of free agent outfielder Cedric Mullins and second baseman Gavin Lux, who have lower strikeout rates than previous players, the team aims to enhance their batting consistency.
As for competing in the American League East, that appears unlikely. Rival teams like the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Red Sox, all playoff participants last season, remain strong contenders. The Orioles are also making aggressive moves this offseason. Currently, Tampa Bay seems poised for around 80 wins, and if fortune smiles, they might reach 85-90 wins and vie for a wild card spot. While their recent moves don’t inspire immediate optimism, the groundwork laid in past months could pave the way for future success.
