This year’s spring training has showcased notable performers like Chandler Simpson, Curtis Mead, Casey Mize, and Cade Povich. While it can be tempting to focus solely on the limited number of exhibition games, this analysis aims to explore the potential for their success to carry over into the regular season and, consequently, their roles in fantasy baseball.
Chandler Simpson, OF, TB
Simpson boasts a distinctive skill set characterized by 80 speed, 65 hitting ability, and 20 power. He has continued his impactful performance from last season into spring training. In 2024, he topped the minor leagues with 104 stolen bases and a batting average of .355, with the next closest player (Enrique Bradfield Jr.) recording 30 fewer stolen bases. So far this spring, Simpson has accrued six hits, three stolen bases, and impressively, only one strikeout in 27 plate appearances.
The single strikeout aligns with Simpson’s career trajectory; he possesses strong bat-to-ball skills, maintaining a contact rate above 90% at all minor-league levels, with a strikeout rate never surpassing 11%. Although he is likely to start the season in Triple-A, the dynamic nature of the Rays’ roster could see him take the field at the MLB level this year. The pivotal question remains: How will his skills translate at the major league level?
Analyzing his batted ball metrics indicates that Simpson is primarily a ground-ball hitter. His impressive opposite-field percentage is noteworthy. For comparison, in 2024, the highest opposite-field percentages in MLB were notably lower than his projected rate, emphasizing how unique his hitting style is.
Curtis Mead, 2B/3B, TB
Mead has turned heads this spring with physical improvements and adjustments to his batting mechanics. His notable power potential has not consistently manifested at the MLB level, but his current spring training performance, featuring a .576/.641/.697 line in 39 plate appearances, raises hope. He has produced 19 hits, five walks, and only three strikeouts, yet I remain cautious about the sustainability of this performance.
Out of his 19 spring hits, only two were extra-base hits (one being a home run). While he has made solid contact, 52% of it has been on the ground, and his fly-ball percentage has dropped to 14%. This transformation is intriguing, especially since his adjustments were aimed at enhancing his power-hitting abilities.
Casey Mize, SP, DET
Casey Mize, despite being a first-round pick in 2018, is still yet to fulfill his potential. Following Tommy John surgery, Mize finished 2024 with a 17% strikeout rate and a 3.95 FIP. However, his spring training stats present a different narrative: over 11 innings, Mize has achieved a 2.62 FIP, allowing only four hits, striking out 14 batters, and walking five without giving up an earned run. With an ADP of 350 (110th among SPs), he’s establishing himself as a potential sleeper candidate this season.
Cade Povich, SP, BAL
The left-handed Povich is making a solid case for a spot as the Orioles’ fifth starter. In 14.2 innings this spring, he has demonstrated a 3.40 FIP, with four walks and 15 strikeouts. Last season, Povich mainly relied on a four-seam fastball and curveball against right-handed hitters while infrequently using a changeup. His curve and changeup had poor results, prompting him to refine his skills this offseason. He experimented with the “kick-change,” which enhances pitch depth, potentially improving his effectiveness against right-handed batters.
Looking Ahead
Given the projected limited offensive output for the Rays, Simpson and Mead have the potential to be impactful players in their lineup. Both have viable paths to secure spots at the MLB level. With Mize’s progress, the Tigers’ rotation could become one of the strongest in the league, and Povich offers a left-handed option to bolster the Orioles’ rotation. If these four players maintain their improvements, they could significantly influence their teams and fantasy leagues alike.
