It’s clear: the Atlanta Braves underperformed last season. Although injuries and a suspension played a part, many players simply didn’t meet expectations.
Some members of the team also faced unfortunate luck at the plate. Analyzing their metrics suggests that if they maintain their current batting approach, their numbers should experience positive regression over time.
While one could spend a long time examining individual player profiles for trends in their performance, this article will highlight three players who may benefit from a return to form. A good starting point is comparing a player’s weighted on-base average (wOBA) with their expected wOBA (xwOBA). In essence, wOBA provides a more accurate assessment than OPS, as it accounts for different ways of getting on base. For example, it recognizes that a walk contributes less to scoring than a hit.
If a player’s xwOBA significantly exceeds their wOBA, it signals a need for a deeper look into their stats, indicating they could be due for a bounce-back season.
Another critical metric is the batting average on balls in play (BABIP). It’s important to assess a player against their own historical averages rather than league norms. For instance, if a player typically averages a BABIP of .302 over five years but falls to .260 in a given year, it often indicates bad luck with hits falling in.
Currently, three Atlanta Braves players exemplify the potential for constructive regression in their hitting. This review may not be exhaustive, but it will spotlight players worth monitoring.
Mike Yastrzemski
The Braves made headlines by acquiring Yastrzemski, who had a decent season, finishing with a wRC+ of 106, just below his career average of 111. The front office likely saw signs of improvement, as his wOBA was .321 against a higher xwOBA of .329. The most significant difference came with fastballs, where he achieved a wOBA of .322 versus an xwOBA of .344.
Furthermore, Yastrzemski struggled with BABIP luck, recording a .263 average compared to his career .282. Given his impressive walk rate of 12.9 percent—among the top ten percent of qualified hitters—2026 appears promising for him.
Sean Murphy
Murphy is currently injured, which could affect his performance. His offensive decline last year may have been linked to this injury. However, his BABIP numbers were unusually low; he has historically posted below-league average results. In 2025, he managed just .243, down from his career .268 average. His walk rate held steady at 10.4 percent, aligning with his career mark.
While his wOBA of .309 was slightly less than his xwOBA of .314, indicating potential for improvement, a lot hinges on how he manages his recovery.
Michael Harris II
Last but not least, Harris stands out as someone likely to improve this season. He faced challenges last year and had to adjust his swing mid-season. Among the Braves, he exhibited the most pronounced gap between his wOBA and xwOBA. His career BABIP is .315, yet he saw a disappointing .281 last year.
Also, his expected batting average (xBA) suggests a positive trend. He recorded a .289 xBA against fastballs compared to an actual .252. Given that he saw fastballs 54.9 percent of the time, this discrepancy highlights a strong likelihood of corrected performance in 2026.
Conclusion
While analyzing wOBA, xwOBA, and BABIP doesn’t reveal everything about a player’s luck, it offers a useful perspective. Signs indicate that Michael Harris, Sean Murphy, and Mike Yastrzemski should enjoy better offensive performances than last season.
