Inglis’ top pick: Pitts expected to excel against weakened Bills’ defense.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Custom image of Josh Allen and Michael Penix Jr.
The Monday night doubleheader begins with the injury-plagued Buffalo Bills traveling to face the well-rested Atlanta Falcons.
With an anticipated increase in his usage and a favorable passing scenario, Kyle Pitts stands out in my Bills vs. Falcons predictions.
Be sure to check out my complete NFL picks for October 13 — kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Bills vs Falcons prediction
Best Bet for Bills vs Falcons: Kyle Pitts Over 3.5 receptions (-115).
The Buffalo Bills are aiming for a rebound after a prime-time defeat, while the Atlanta Falcons — coming off a bye — pose a tough challenge.
The matchup takes place indoors, which usually enhances passing efficiency, and Michael Penix Jr. displayed strong performance in Week 4. Given the potential for increased involvement this week, it’s worthwhile to consider Atlanta’s tight end.
With a nearly 20% target share, Pitts is lined up in the slot or out wide 74% of the time, resembling a wide receiver rather than a traditional tight end. Coming off a remarkable 5-catch, 70-yard, 1-touchdown game on only five targets, he has consistently hit his Over on this reception prop.
An indoor matchup at home should further bolster these statistics, especially with Bills linebacker Matt Milano potentially missing the game, a key player for tight end coverage. Moreover, WR2 Darnell Mooney has yet to practice this week, indicating a troubling sign for the Falcons coming off a bye.
Bills vs Falcons MNF same-game parlay
The injury to Dalton Kincaid has altered some dynamics, and with the TE1 now out for MNF, Keon Coleman is set to receive additional targets in this indoor game.
Both coaches indicated they favor straightforward strategies, positioning Coleman well for the play-action game while also allowing Pitts to play a role near the goal line after his first touchdown in Week 4.
Bills vs Falcons SGP +900
- Kyle Pitts anytime touchdown
- Keon Coleman anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Non-WR Profit Play
Let’s involve the two leading runners from both teams in this touchdown parlay, enhancing the odds to +2,200.
Buffalo needs to reset after last week, and James Cook will likely see increased involvement.
On the other hand, Bijan Robinson may be one of the top running backs in the league and will get significant opportunities on Monday night.
Bills vs Falcons SGP
- Kyle Pitts anytime touchdown
- Keon Coleman anytime touchdown
- James Cook anytime touchdown
- Bijan Robinson anytime touchdown
Bills vs Falcons game predictions
Bills vs Falcons moneyline prediction
The last time the Bills faced two consecutive losses was in Week 5 of the previous season. Coming out of the bye, the Falcons struggled, losing 17-13 to the Chargers as a narrow home favorite.
With the Falcons rested after their bye week, the Bills’ moneyline is missing a guarantee, but their recent loss should serve as motivation, and Josh Allen has a strong dome record with an 8-1 straight up.
Final score prediction: Bills 27 – Falcons 24
Bills vs Falcons spread prediction
Atlanta experienced a disappointing loss as a 5-point favorite against Carolina in Week 3, marked by significant communication issues with OC Zac Robinson, who has since moved to field level.
Michael Penix excelled with Robinson on the field, thus I lean towards the rested Falcons at +4.5.
Bills vs Falcons Over/Under prediction
Despite the indoor setting, it’s important to remember that Atlanta was shut out just two games ago.
This bet doesn’t entice me, but my preference leans towards the Under at 50.
Bills vs Falcons odds
- Spread: Buffalo -4.5 (-110) | Atlanta +4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Buffalo -230 | Atlanta +190
- Over/Under: Over 50.0 (-110) | Under 50.0 (-110)
Bills vs Falcons betting trend to consider
Although he has faced the Falcons in just two games, Josh Allen’s 42.3% completion rate against them is the lowest among all teams he has played. For further insights, check out the NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Falcons.
How to watch Bills vs Falcons
| Location | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Monday, October 13, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Find out how to stream the Bills vs. Falcons game live tonight.
Bills vs Falcons recent injuries
Bills vs Falcons weather
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More Bills vs Falcons predictions for Monday Night Football
Odds are accurate at publication and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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