Future Heat Records Forecasted
WASHINGTON (AP) — Prepare for several years of unprecedented heat, pushing Earth toward increasingly dangerous and uncomfortable levels, according to predictions from two leading meteorological organizations.
The World Meteorological Organization and the U.K. Meteorological Office report an 80% likelihood of setting a new annual temperature record within the next five years. Furthermore, it is highly likely the planet will breach the international temperature limits established a decade ago.
“Increased global average temperatures might seem abstract, but they mean a greater probability of extreme weather events, such as intensified hurricanes, severe rainfall, and droughts,” said Natalie Mahowald, a climate scientist at Cornell University. “Consequently, higher global temperatures lead to more lives at risk.”
As Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, explained, each increase of just a tenth of a degree from anthropogenic climate change heightens the frequency and severity of extreme weather patterns, including heat waves, droughts, floods, and reinforced hurricanes.
Remarkably, there’s a 86% chance that within the next five years, one of those years will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and a 70% chance that the five-year average will also surpass this threshold. This projection comes from over 200 models conducted by ten global scientific centers.
Notably, ten years ago, researchers estimated only 1% likelihood of exceeding the critical 1.5-degree threshold in the near future, a prediction that sadly became reality last year. Now, predictions concerning 2 degrees Celsius of warming are emerging, which scientists Adam Scaife and Leon Hermanson described as “alarming.”
“This isn’t what anyone desires, but it aligns with current scientific understanding,” stated Hermanson. Violating this threshold would signify a major climatic concern, potentially leading to disastrous consequences, such as severe health impacts and devastating wildfires as the rapidly warming atmosphere continues to dry our lands, according to Richard Betts, head of climate impacts research at the U.K. Met Office.
