For the first time since Jon Jones’ victory over Cyril Gane in March 2023, the UFC’s heavyweight championship will be contested without an interim title. Tom Aspinall, who has transitioned from interim champion to undisputed champion, will defend his title against Gane this Saturday in the main event of UFC 321 in Abu Dhabi.
The challenges within the heavyweight division over the past few years stemmed from Jones’ inactivity and his reluctance to defend his title against Aspinall. In June, Jones vacated the title and briefly retired, only to announce shortly afterwards that he intends to make a comeback later this year.
1. The Pressure is on Tom Aspinall
Despite an impressive record of nine fights in the Octagon, including eight finishes and one loss due to a knee injury (which he avenged later), Aspinall’s abilities in critical areas remain uncertain. He has never fought beyond the second round in his 18 professional bouts and has yet to face the full five-round championship distance. Questions about his grappling and resilience during intense exchanges linger, as does his tendency to expose himself while moving backward, a risk he has yet to pay for. Aspinall, favored over Gane by more than 4-to-1, must demonstrate against Gane why Jones may have been reluctant to risk his pristine record against such a formidable opponent.
2. A Crucial Moment for Cyril Gane
Once hailed as a potential heavyweight superstar, Gane’s trajectory has been rocky. After capturing the interim heavyweight title in 2021 with a victory over Derrick Lewis, his subsequent performances, including two disappointing title fights against Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones, raised questions. In recent fights, he has shown signs of vulnerability, being hurt multiple times even in wins. With Zhang Weili’s departure from the strawweight division, Gane’s upcoming title bout against Aspinall may represent his last chance to reclaim the heavyweight crown he once pursued fervently.
3. An Open Field in the Women’s Strawweight Division
Zhang Weili, a significant figure in the women’s strawweight division, has vacated her title to challenge flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko in a historic superfight at UFC 322 in November. This departure creates a significant opportunity for fighters in the 115-pound category, particularly Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern, who are set to face each other in the co-main event for the vacant title. Jandiroba is on a five-fight winning streak and has demonstrated technical prowess, while Dern, despite inconsistency, is viewed as a rising star with potential.
4. Umar Nurmagomedov’s Challenge to Merab Dvalishvili
Although Umar Nurmagomedov lost his last bout to Merab Dvalishvili by unanimous decision, many believe he still poses a genuine threat to the champion. With a balanced skill set, Nurmagomedov returns from an injury sustained during his last fight, determined to close the gaps in his performance against Dvalishvili. As champions often do, Dvalishvili has effectively eliminated others in the division, making Nurmagomedov’s upcoming match against Mario Bautista crucial for future title considerations.
5. Alexander Volkov Faces a Significant Challenge
After a disputed split-decision loss to Gane, Volkov’s chance for a title shot seemed thwarted, although UFC President Dana White acknowledged the judges’ error. He now faces Brazilian grappling specialist Jailton Almeida, who has shown strong performance with finishes in his fights. Almeida enters as a slight favorite against Volkov, whose inconsistent takedown defense has been a concern. A victory could position Volkov for another title shot, depending on how the division evolves in the coming matches.
