Vladimir Guerrero Jr. set a personal deadline for a contract extension to coincide with the first day of spring training over a month ago, but no agreement has been reached. Guerrero has hinted he may be open to discussions with the Blue Jays if they come up with a new proposal, despite indicating he does not plan to continue negotiating. This is particularly significant after Blue Jays CEO Mark Shapiro expressed optimism about eventually finalizing an extension with their star first baseman (via Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi). Shapiro stated:
“…My overall sentiment is one of optimism. I believe we will sign him. We want him to finish his career with the Blue Jays, and Vlad wishes to spend his entire career here, so our interests align. Whether this happens before or during free agency, I am hopeful we will come to an agreement.”
Since Guerrero’s self-imposed deadline lapsed, some details about his extension demands and the Blue Jays’ last offer have emerged. Guerrero has clarified that he is not targeting anything as significant as Juan Soto’s $765 million deal but is looking for under $600 million in guaranteed money over a 14- or 15-year contract. Reports from multiple sources, including Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Jon Heyman, and Joel Sherman from the New York Post, have indicated that Guerrero aimed for a net present value of $500 million. While the Jays allegedly presented an offer close to this amount, deferred payments ultimately lowered the value to approximately $450 million.
While this information sheds light on the negotiations, Shapiro cautioned that the situation is more complex than simply a $50 million difference between reported figures. He noted, “That’s an oversimplification based on only part of the information,” (via MLB.com’s Keegan Mattheson).
Shapiro’s positive outlook on reaching a long-term agreement comes shortly after Hector Gomez of the Dominican Republic’s Z101 Sports (reported) that the Blue Jays are preparing a new offer for Guerrero. It remains uncertain if this proposal will come before Opening Day, but Shapiro’s statements suggest an offer may be forthcoming soon.
Despite turning 26 this past Sunday, Guerrero is in his last year under club control and will earn $28.5 million in 2025 after avoiding arbitration. He will be a year older than Soto was when Soto entered the free agent market, yet Guerrero is set to hit free agency with an impressive combination of youth and an outstanding offensive record.
Guerrero’s early career seasons (ages 20 and 21) were decent but not extraordinary; however, he had a breakthrough MVP-worthy season in 2021. While his production in 2022 and 2023 was strong, it didn’t match the heights of 2021. He returned to elite form in 2024. Since his breakout year, Guerrero has boasted a phenomenal .293/.370/.517 batting average, hitting 136 home runs over 2,783 plate appearances, showing about 45% better than league average, according to wRC+.
Last year, Guerrero recorded exceptional batted-ball metrics and bat speed, achieving a career-low 13.8% strikeout rate alongside a 10.3% walk rate, which is the second-highest of his career. Statcast data reveals he ranked in the upper echelons of MLB hitters in several categories, including barrel rate (91st percentile), bat speed (95th), hard-hit rate (97th), average exit velocity (98th), expected slugging percentage (98th), and expected wOBA (98th). He had the highest maximum exit velocity and expected batting average in MLB.
Guerrero’s durability is notable, ranking just behind Marcus Semien for total plate appearances since 2021, where he is tied with Yordan Alvarez for the sixth-most home runs and ranks sixth overall with 405 RBIs. In the past four years, he stands 10th in batting average, 11th in on-base percentage, and 13th in slugging percentage. Though his defense and baserunning may be lacking, Guerrero has been one of the top ten hitters in MLB since the start of 2021, showing elite performance in two seasons.
Given Guerrero’s outstanding bat-to-ball skills, bat speed, and other metrics, there’s little reason to expect a significant decline soon. While the latter half of any mega-contract might be challenging, it is typically accepted as the cost of business when signing prime-level players like him.
