Day 5 of the ATP Miami tournament promises thrilling matches, featuring six-time champion Novak Djokovic facing Camilo Ugo Carabelli, who has already knocked out two American players. In another matchup, last year’s runner-up Grigor Dimitrov will take on his longtime rival Karen Khachanov. As always, the LWOT team shares their predictions for who will advance.
ATP Miami Day 5 Predictions
David Goffin vs Brandon Nakashima
Head–to–Head: Goffin 0-3 Nakashima
David Goffin often makes a habit of pulling off significant upsets after a series of disappointing results. Heading into Miami with a lackluster 3-10 record for the year, he has managed two impressive victories, notably a surprise win against favorite Carlos Alcaraz.
Now, he faces Brandon Nakashima, who has handed him defeats in all three previous encounters and was the same player who brought Goffin back down to earth after his recent successes in Acapulco.
While Goffin may not hit the ball as powerfully as his younger counterparts, his precise timing allows him to control rallies effectively, and the quick Miami courts favor his style. Conversely, Nakashima excels as a counter-puncher, adept with his outstanding backhand and angle production.
Given that both players are evenly matched from the backline, small details could determine the outcome. Nakashima, armed with a better serve and the support of the Miami crowd, might take the advantage.
Prediction: Nakashima in 3
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Lorenzo Musetti
Head–to–Head: Auger-Aliassime 3-3 Musetti
Felix Auger-Aliassime has made a strong start this season, clinching two titles but will seek to rectify his early exit from Indian Wells this month. He comfortably defeated Australian qualifier Tristan Schoolkate in the first round, setting up a match against Lorenzo Musetti, a familiar adversary with whom he has exchanged victories.
On the other hand, Musetti has had a rocky start to his season, hindered by an injury in February, holding a 6-3 record. He narrowly advanced against Quentin Halys in the last round, despite facing a barrage of aces from the Frenchman.
Auger-Aliassime has displayed greater confidence this season, coupling a robust serving ability with impressive agility to retrieve points when challenged by Musetti.
Prediction: Auger-Aliassime in 2
Grigor Dimitrov vs Karen Khachanov
Head–to–Head: Dimitrov 4-1 Khachanov
After a series of injuries at the start of the season, Grigor Dimitrov is regaining his form with three wins in his last four outings, his only loss coming against Carlos Alcaraz at Indian Wells.
In contrast, Khachanov has been unusually inconsistent this season, managing to win consecutive matches only once at the Australian Open. Recently, he has found success only in 3 out of his last eight games, although he did dominate Nick Krygios in a second-round encounter, allowing just six points on his serve without facing any break points.
Despite Khachanov’s victory in their most recent encounter, Dimitrov holds a commanding edge in their head-to-head and is currently the more consistent player. With Miami historically being a favorable venue for the Bulgarian, his versatile gameplay should lead him to another confident win over the erratic Russian.
Prediction: Dimitrov in 2
Novak Djokovic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Head–to–Head: First Meeting
Djokovic’s quest for a record seventh Miami Open title has begun on a strong note this week. His finesse and agility helped him defeat Rinky Hijikata, who posed some challenges in the second set. The 37-year-old hasn’t exited before the round of 16 in this tournament since 2018, though he’s struggled to progress beyond the round of 32 in any competition this year, facing a defeat to Matteo Berrettini last month.
Carabelli made his way into the main draw as a lucky loser and made the most of it by achieving two impressive comeback victories against American players Brandon Holt and Alex Michelsen, disappointing the local fans. Even if Carabelli delivers an outstanding performance, it’s unlikely he will overcome a player of Djokovic’s caliber. With several top seeds out of the tournament, Djokovic has ample motivation to clinch another victory.
Prediction: Djokovic in 3
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey – Imagn Images
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