Change is Inevitable After a Month of Baseball

While a single month can’t fully capture the essence of a season, it can definitely prompt some reevaluations.

As the 2025 baseball season commenced on March 27, various developments have occurred. Teams expected to be strong contenders have stumbled early on, whereas several unexpected teams have emerged as potential disruptors in the upcoming months.

Below, you will find a list of ten teams, categorized into the five greatest risers and five most significant fallers, whose playoff probabilities have undergone notable changes since Opening Day, according to FanGraphs. (Statistics referenced below, including playoff odds, are current as of Wednesday.)

Top Five Risers

1. Tigers: +26.1 (46% to 72.1%)

The Tigers began 2025 aiming to capitalize on a surprising late-season push that earned them a playoff spot in 2024. Thus far, they’ve performed well, starting the season with a 15-10 record, thanks largely to a pitching staff leading the American League with a 2.94 ERA. Unlike last season, when they depended on an unconventional pitching strategy, the Tigers are now succeeding with a more traditional approach.

2. Mets: +24.7 (62.4% to 87.1%)

Despite having just two players with an OPS above .800 and missing key starters due to injury, the Mets entered Thursday with the best record in Major League Baseball at 18-7. Their current success is aided by strong pitching, which boasts the lowest ERA in the league, all while topping the playoff odds charts.

3. Giants: +22.7 (28.5% to 51.2%)

The Giants have navigated a competitive NL West despite inconsistencies in their rotation. While marquee signing Willy Adames has yet to make a significant impact, the team’s emerging players, like Wilmer Flores, have helped propel their success with a notable increase in runs scored.

4. Cubs: +18.4 (48.3% to 66.7%)

Chicago’s offseason signings are paying dividends, particularly Kyle Tucker and Carson Kelly, the latter of whom has been unexpectedly outstanding, contributing significantly to the Cubs’ scoring ability. With a strong early-season schedule behind them, the Cubs are managing to post a winning record.

5. Padres: +17.8 (32.9% to 50.7%)

The Padres started the season strong but have cooled off recently. Still, they currently lead the NL West standings and remain in a playoff position, though they must fend off the competitive challenge from their division rivals.

Top Five Fallers

1. Braves: -26.3 (93.4% to 67.1%)

Initially with high World Series hopes, the Braves have struggled early, sitting at 10-14. However, their recent victories suggest a potential turnaround, especially with key players like Ronald Acuña Jr. nearing a return from injury.

2. Orioles: -22.1 (45% to 22.9%)

The Orioles have been unable to overcome their starting staff’s struggles. With multiple players underperforming, their record stands at 9-14, which is disappointing for a team aiming for improvement after past playoff exits.

3. Twins: -20.8 (55.5% to 34.7%)

Once favored to win the AL Central, the Twins have faltered, currently positioned fourth with a 9-15 record, showcasing the challenges they face in overcoming last season’s disappointing finish.

4. Royals: -17.4 (42.5% to 25.1%)

The Royals have struggled offensively, leading to a disappointing 10-14 record. Despite a solid performance from star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., the rest of the lineup has struggled significantly.

5. Rays: -15 (37.7% to 22.7%)

The Rays had hoped to contend after moving past their 2024 selloff but have faced setbacks, including injuries to ace Shane McClanahan. With a current record of 10-14, their playoff aspirations appear shaky.