The Magic of Cinderella Stories in the NCAA Tournament
The NCAA Tournament epitomizes the most thrilling postseason in American sports, as it provides a platform for underdogs to triumph over giants, unexpected moments to unfold, and young players to achieve fame with remarkable performances.
Each year in college basketball, fans encounter a Cinderella story, where a lower-seeded team astounds the nation with surprise victories or an incredible tournament run. Notable examples include George Mason in 2006, VCU making a run from the First Four to the Final Four in 2011, Saint Peter’s shocking Kentucky, and UMBC and FDU becoming the first 16-seeds to defeat a 1-seed. The excitement of the tournament peaks during the first two days with unpredictable outcomes.
As we look at potential Cinderella candidates, the FOX Sports team shares insights on NCAA Tournament matchups in recent years. Here’s a breakdown of the Round of 64 records since 2018:
- 1 vs. 16: 1-seeds 22-2
- 2 vs. 15: 2-seeds 21-3
- 3 vs. 14: 3-seeds 22-2
- 4 vs. 13: 4-seeds 17-7
- 5 vs. 12: 5-seeds 16-8
- 6 vs. 11: Even at 12-12
- 7 vs. 10: 7-seeds 14-9
- 8 vs. 9: 8-seeds 8-16
Key insights indicate that 11-seeds, including VCU, Drake, North Carolina, and the winner of Xavier/Texas, can be formidable. I’m predicting the Bulldogs will upset 6-seed Missouri. Together with Illinois and their quest for a strong tournament showing, this year is brimming with potential surprises.
Cinderella Candidates to Watch
South Region: No. 12 Seed UC San Diego
This year, UC San Diego is making headlines with a remarkable 30-4 record and being crowned champions of the Big West. Their standout player, senior Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, is averaging 19.5 points. Facing a challenge against Big Ten champions Michigan, their ability to capitalize on turnovers could pave the way for an upset.
West Region: No. 11 Seed Drake
Following an impressive coaching hire, Drake is under Ben McCollum’s leadership and boasting a lineup featuring Bennett Stirtz, who averages 19.4 points. Their strong defense could be pivotal as they face Mizzou.
East Region: No. 13 Seed Akron
After returning to the NCAA Tournament, Akron is riding a wave of success with 21 wins out of their last 22 games, led by guard Nate Johnson, who recently shone in the MAC Tournament. Their matchup against Arizona represents a significant test, one where pacing may become key to their strategy.
Midwest Region: No. 13 Seed High Point
High Point’s high-scoring offense poses a threat to Purdue, the Big South champions are aiming for a breakthrough upset. However, if their defense can handle key Purdue players, they could be one to watch for surprises in the tournament.
John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport across various platforms, including game commentary on FS1 and leading broadcasts on the BIG EAST Digital Network. Follow him on Twitter at @John_Fanta.