Building a successful fantasy basketball team begins with an effective draft. Knowing which players to target and which to steer clear of is crucial for a standout draft.
Which players are likely to exceed their average draft position (ADP) this season? Who is poised for a breakout? Conversely, which players might experience a decline in performance?
Our fantasy basketball analysts—André Snellings, Eric Moody, Eric Karabell, Jim McCormick, and Steve Alexander—share their insights on top sleepers, potential breakout stars, and players to avoid for the 2025-26 NBA season.
Sleepers
Sleeper: A player projected to significantly outperform their average draft position (ADP) in standard ESPN leagues.
Stephon Castle, PG, San Antonio Spurs
Karabell: Castle excelled in the last 25 games of the previous season, averaging 19.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG, and 5.6 APG, even while De’Aaron Fox was sidelined. The two can work together in a dynamic backcourt, and despite concerns about rookie Dylan Harper’s role, Castle has solid potential without requiring exceptional shooting skills, making him a low-risk pick since he falls outside the top 100.
Alex Sarr, C, Washington Wizards
Snellings: The No. 2 pick from the 2024 NBA draft, Sarr has tremendous potential and showed readiness as a rookie. Observing him during the Summer League, it was clear he was too good for that level. He could be a nightly double-double threat with significant blocks and shooting ability, resembling a young Jaren Jackson Jr. when fully healthy.
Breakouts
Breakout: A player expected to make a significant leap in production, reaching or nearing the top of their position for the first time.
Brandon Miller, SF, Charlotte Hornets
McCormick: Some may overlook Miller due to last season’s lack of excitement, but he is showing growth in all key areas this season. He has been taking many three-pointers while improving his passing and finishing. His potential to be a game-changer makes him an enticing draft pick this season.
Cooper Flagg, SF, Dallas Mavericks
Alexander: Flagg is set to emerge as a notable contributor for the Mavericks, replacing Luka Doncic’s production. Although I’m not as high on him as I was on Doncic, Flagg is in a position to excel, especially with key players like Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving out for parts of the season, making his rookie year averages of around 20 points and 8 rebounds achievable.
Busts
Bust: A player expected to perform well but likely will not meet expectations this season.
Paul George, SF, Philadelphia 76ers
Moody: While still a prominent name, George poses significant bust potential for the upcoming season. After undergoing another knee procedure and struggling to stay on the court with less than 60 games played in five of the last six seasons, expecting robust production from a 35-year-old player poses considerable risk.
Ja Morant, PG, Memphis Grizzles
Karabell: Ja is undeniably exciting to watch but continues to fall short of expectations due to his limited availability. After playing in just 50 games last season, his declining stats raise concerns about his draft value. Even with increased usage from teammates, if Morant can’t maintain his health, he won’t be able to provide the desired value.
