Lionsgate’s biopic Michael about Michael Jackson is expected to make a strong impact this weekend, with a projected global box office opening of around $150 million, following additional shooting.
The film, which has a production budget of $200 million, has been partly financed through foreign sales, with international distribution managed by Universal, except for Japan where local distributor Kino has rights.
The domestic box office projections suggest it could achieve a record debut for a music biopic, potentially surpassing Straight Outta Compton ($60.2 million) and Bohemian Rhapsody ($51 million), the latter produced by Michael‘s producer Graham King. Directed by Antoine Fuqua and written by John Logan, Michael is currently forecasted to earn between $65 million and $70 million across 3,900 theaters, which includes 1,600 IMAX and premium large format locations.
The Hollywood premiere held last night was a spirited affair, reverberating with cheers and applause during its 127-minute runtime at the Dolby Theatre. Instead of the usual talent introductions, King and Fuqua captivated the 3,400 attendees with insights from Jaafar Jackson and other members of the Jackson family, including Prince Jackson, son of the King of Pop, along with Nia Long, Colman Domingo, and others.
Internationally, Michael is anticipated to earn between $75 million and $80 million from 82 markets concurrently with its domestic release, including regions such as the UK, Ireland, China, Mexico, and Germany. Notably, Korea’s release is set for May 13, while Japan will follow in June.
A comparable reference point is 20th Century Fox and GK Films’ four-time Oscar-winning Bohemian Rhapsody, which debuted with $69 million in similar markets. The Queen biopic, which had included Korea in its initial rollout, ultimately grossed $216.6 million domestically and $910.8 million globally, demonstrating strong legs at the box office.
Following delays, Michael is now opening after initially being slated for April 18, 2025, and later, October 3, 2025. Changes included reshoots due to the lack of legal clearance to depict accusations against Jackson. The Jackson estate reportedly financed the $15 million additional shoots. Although early Rotten Tomatoes reviews are at 33% rotten, audience reactions have been extremely positive, with high presales indicating strong interest globally.
