ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) has seen its stock rise nearly 18% in 2026, while the S&P 500 remains relatively unchanged. This surge can be attributed to heightened oil prices due to the ongoing Persian Gulf conflict. The pivotal question now is whether ExxonMobil is a worthwhile investment. Below, we outline both optimistic and pessimistic perspectives on the stock.
The bullish view hinges on the belief that the market is underestimating the potential for prolonged elevated oil prices. An earlier oil futures analysis indicates that the market expects the oil price impact from the conflict to be short-lived, predicting a return to significantly lower prices by fall.
This viewpoint might be overly optimistic, given that the conflict remains unresolved and the strait is currently blockaded. Despite widespread interest in reopening the strait, there is no consensus on the conditions for doing so. Additionally, uncertainties about insurance for shipping companies and the infrastructure risks in the area create further complications for energy transactions.
Consequently, proponents argue that ExxonMobil should be considered a must-have stock during the Strait of Hormuz’s closure.
On the other hand, bear investors are split into two factions. One group believes the oil futures market is accurate and that oil prices will significantly drop in the forthcoming months. If this occurs, investing in ExxonMobil for merely a couple of quarters of high prices could be a blunder.
The second group recognizes the bulls’ argument for sustained high oil prices but argues that ExxonMobil may not be the optimal investment for this situation. With its LNG investments, ExxonMobil is tied to Qatar, a key player in the oil market influenced by the conflict.
Furthermore, ExxonMobil’s operations depend more on the price differential between crude oil and refined products rather than on oil price movements alone. Lacking significant growth potential, it may struggle to boost production even if prices increase, making it a relatively low-return investment.
