Inside: Analyzing 25 years of data to determine how frequently the first quarterback selected becomes the best professional in the NFL (the odds for Cam Ward are not in his favor).
This article is part of Scoop City, The Athletic’s NFL newsletter. Sign up here to get it delivered straight to your inbox.
Quarterback Draft Trends
Over the past 25 years, I have analyzed data to specifically address one query: How frequently does the first quarterback drafted turn out to be the best in their class?
This year, Cam Ward is clearly the top QB prospect and is projected to be the No. 1 overall pick, with a significant gap before the next contender. Following him is the contentious Shedeur Sanders, who, despite having the precision to rank in the top five, is dropping in mock drafts due to questions about his arm strength and ability to navigate the pocket.
“I simply cannot view Sanders as a top-10 choice; I doubt he’s equipped to uplift a genuinely struggling team,” wrote Nick Baumgardner in his latest three-round mock draft, which assigns Sanders to the Steelers at No. 21 overall. Baumgardner’s mock also highlights three other quarterbacks later on, with Ward taking the first spot:
- No. 33: Browns select QB Tyler Shough
- No. 34: Giants select QB Jaxson Dart
- No. 42: Jets select QB Jalen Milroe
The unfortunate news for Ward? If we look ahead 15 years, it’s more probable that someone else, rather than the first quarterback selected, will emerge as the standout passer from this class.
In the past 25 years, the first quarterback selected has become the best professional just 40 percent of the time. Since 2000, when Chad Pennington (No. 18) was taken prior to Tom Brady (No. 199), the first quarterback chosen has been recognized as the best passer only 10 times.
(Both subjective assessments and objective metrics, including data from last year’s review on quarterback success rates, informed this analysis.)
The last 12 years have shown troubling trends for top QB prospects like Ward: only four quarterbacks—yielding a success rate of just 33 percent—were both the first selected and later recognized as the top professional.
