The bantamweight division has emerged as one of the UFC’s most talent-laden classes. Historically, the 135-pound category has posed challenges for newcomers, with notable fighters like Dominick Cruz and current champion Merab Dvalishvili facing tough experiences early in their UFC journeys. The ability to adapt quickly can determine a fighter’s success or failure. Colby Thicknesse and Josias Musasa are two promising bantamweights who learned the hard way during their first fights in the octagon.
Both athletes entered the UFC with impressive regional backgrounds and high hopes, only to realize that a strong reputation holds little weight when the cage door shuts. Their upcoming bout at UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes serves as a vital chance for the winner to rebuild their momentum, while the loser may face scrutiny regarding their readiness for this competitive level.
Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa Preview
Standing at 5’7″ with a reach of 69 inches, Colby Thicknesse’s 7-1 record doesn’t fully represent his potential. His debut against Aleksandre Topuria revealed a number of areas that require improvement. Thicknesse averages only 2.53 significant strikes per minute with a 29% accuracy, while absorbing 2.73 strikes and boasting a 48% striking defense rate.
Despite his wrestling background, Thicknesse did not attempt any takedowns in his first UFC fight but holds a 50% takedown defense rate. His main challenge lies in delivering comprehensive performances rather than depending on isolated moments of brilliance.
Josias Musasa, at 5’8″ with a 74-inch reach, fulfilled the promise of his nickname ‘The KO Wizard’ during his 8-1 regional run. However, his submission loss to Carlos Vera exposed weaknesses that his future opponents will likely try to exploit. Musasa averages 3.45 significant strikes per minute at an accuracy of 43%, while taking 4.60 strikes per minute and showcasing a limited striking defense of 28%.
Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa MMA Betting Odds
Betting odds for the match have emerged, with Josias Musasa positioned as a moderate favorite at -156. On the other hand, Colby Thicknesse is seen as an underdog with odds of +130.
The odds for the fight going the distance are also available, with the chance of going to the judges set at +112. The likelihood of an early finish is higher, as reflected by the odds of -142.
Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa Predictions And Picks
This bantamweight bout appears to favor Josias Musasa despite his recent loss to Carlos Vera. His physical advantages, higher striking output, and finishing capability likely position him to dominate Thicknesse, who possesses less refined skills.
While Thicknesse may find fleeting success with his unconventional movement, Musasa’s southpaw stance and reach advantage present significant issues that Thicknesse hasn’t yet resolved at this level. However, with Alexander Volkanovski coaching him, Thicknesse could have pivotal support in this matchup.
If placing bets, it may be wise to go against the odds and support Colby Thicknesse to win by unanimous decision.
(Image Credit: Gary A. Vasquez – Imagn Images)
