Photo By – Imagn Images. Check out our free predictions for the Chiefs vs. Jaguars match during Monday Night Football in Week 5.
The Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) have found their rhythm over the past two weeks and will now travel to face the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1). ESPN and ABC will offer coverage of Monday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Although the Jaguars are tied for the lead in the AFC South, they are considered 3.5-point underdogs at home, with a total set at 46.5 points.
My predictions for the Chiefs vs. Jaguars suggest that Patrick Mahomes will likely utilize his mobility more effectively in this game.
Here are my NFL picks for Monday, October 6.
Chiefs vs Jaguars Prediction
Best Bet: Patrick Mahomes Over 21.5 rushing yards (-110)
After a strong performance against the Ravens last week, the Kansas City Chiefs are back at .500 and eager to regain their position in the AFC. Patrick Mahomes has ascended to No. 3 in the MVP odds, and a standout performance against a formidable 3-1 Jacksonville Jaguars squad could elevate him even further.
Mahomes has been increasing his rushing attempts this season, with 22 carries totaling 130 yards and two rushing touchdowns across four games. Given the matchup, we can expect further utilization of his legs in Week 5.
Jacksonville’s rush defense is impressive, ranking among the top nine teams allowing under 4.0 yards per carry and boasting the best success rate in the league. They have only allowed one rushing touchdown this season (against Jake Browning), and mobile quarterbacks like Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud have successfully exceeded their rushing props against this defense.
In contrast, Kansas City’s rushing game has struggled significantly. The Chiefs rely heavily on their passing, with rookie Brashard Smith gaining attention as their running back situation remains weak. Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt have combined for just 10 carries in the red zone; Mahomes alone has six and has converted two into touchdowns.
THE BLITZ projects Mahomes to rush for 29 yards this week. His rushing total has been set at 28.5 last week and 27.5 the week before. Given the strong run defense and an expected neutral game script, Mahomes could again lead the rushing game—both on the ground and in scoring. If the Jaguars split carries between Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten, he might even end the game with the highest rushing yards.
Chiefs vs Jaguars MNF Same-Game Parlay
Mahomes will continue his MVP quest against a formidable defense that may surprise some. Should he find himself trailing, the prospects look better; however, given that the Chiefs hold the second spot in the league for pass rate, they will continue to lean on passing plays, enhancing opportunities for scrambles. Rather than depending on multiple players, let’s focus on one elite playmaker during this vital game with a fully operational offense.
Chiefs vs Jaguars SGP
- Patrick Mahomes anytime TD
- Patrick Mahomes Over 21.5 rushing yards
- Chiefs moneyline
Big-Ticket SGP: Mahomes at the Center
We can also consider adding a rookie running back for a touchdown. His snaps doubled in Week 4, and he has become a topic of discussion for the team. He may feature more in the game plan this week, especially in the passing game. Including Trevor Lawrence for an interception is also a smart choice against this Chiefs defense, particularly since he has already thrown four picks this season.
Chiefs vs Jaguars SGP (+4,000)
- Patrick Mahomes anytime TD
- Brashard Smith anytime TD
- Trevor Lawrence Over 0.5 interceptions
Chiefs vs Jaguars Game Predictions
Chiefs vs Jaguars Moneyline Prediction
The Chiefs have won their last eight head-to-head matchups against the Jaguars dating back to 2010, including a 27-20 victory in the 2022-23 Divisional Round, where they were favored by eight points despite Mahomes being injured. He remains 4-0 against the Jaguars, completing over 70% of his passes and achieving a passer rating of 109.2. The Chiefs are back, making the moneyline a favorable bet.
Chiefs vs Jaguars Spread Prediction
The spread initially opened at -3, fluctuating to -3.5 early Monday afternoon. If the Jaguars improve their offensive line health, this line might close at -3.
Chiefs vs Jaguars Over/Under Prediction
I am skeptical about the Over given the strength of both teams’ defenses. The total has risen from 44.5 to 46.5 over time. I would lean towards the Under at 46.5.
Chiefs vs Jaguars Odds
- Spread: Kansas City -3.5 | Jacksonville +3.5
- Moneyline: Kansas City -185 | Jacksonville +155
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Chiefs vs Jaguars Betting Trend to Know
Patrick Mahomes holds a 39-10 straight-up record as a road favorite. Check out more NFL betting trends for the Chiefs vs. Jaguars matchup.
How to Watch Chiefs vs Jaguars
| Location | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL |
| Date | Monday, October 6, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN and ABC |
Learn how to live stream the Chiefs vs. Jaguars for free.
Chiefs vs Jaguars Latest Injuries
Patrick Mahomes was briefly on the injury report with a groin issue but practiced fully throughout the week, carrying no game designation on the final Week 5 report. He is expected to start tonight. Fans should also anticipate seeing Hollywood Brown in action, as he has accumulated 209 receiving yards and one touchdown this season.
Chiefs vs Jaguars Weather
Prepare for a warm, muggy evening in Jacksonville during MNF. Expect mostly cloudy skies with potential spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will be around the mid-70s at kickoff and drop to the low-70s later. Weather conditions will likely lead to a slick ball and turf, influencing gameplay, especially in terms of ball security and play execution.
