Summary
- Four users on Polymarket have placed a total of $62,000 in bets that Satoshi Nakamoto will transfer some Bitcoin this year.
- The odds in the prediction market surged to 15% last week, a significant increase from 2% at the beginning of the month.
- There are speculations that the bettors might have insider information or doubt the reliability of the resolution source.
The odds on Polymarket regarding the enigmatic Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto moving BTC from his wallets this year increased dramatically from 2% to 15% last week, as several users made substantial bets.
This surge in betting stems from over $62,000 wagered by four users within the past week, which has led to speculation that someone might have insider knowledge regarding Satoshi’s potential actions.
Bitcoin was established in 2008 with its creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, remaining anonymous. To date, Satoshi’s identity, whether as an individual or a group, remains unknown. It’s believed that he controls about 1.1 million BTC, equating to around $121 billion, without having ever moved any of it.
Recently, four Polymarket users collectively wagered over $62,000 that Satoshi would transfer some of these funds by year’s end. Notably, two wallets were recently funded, contributing $30,000 to the Satoshi market, which raised suspicions of insider knowledge.
The market turns “Yes” if any wallet identified as Satoshi’s, according to Arkham Intelligence, shows an outflow. Also, traders are wondering whether the bettors consider the Patoshi Pattern incorrect, or if there has been a mislabeling of wallets by Arkham. It’s worth noting that these 22,000 wallets were added in February, not recently.
If Satoshi indeed moves Bitcoin before year-end, this could highlight possible insider trading on Polymarket. Notably, earlier this month, odds that Venezuelan leader Maria Corina Machado would win the Nobel Peace Prize spiked significantly before the event, leading to an investigation by Nobel organizers.
