With just a week left before the fantasy football playoffs (or maybe you’re already participating), it’s time to review our playoff defense (DST) rankings. Whether you have your spot secured or need a win to qualify, it’s essential to plan ahead. This includes preparing your defenses for the upcoming weeks, possibly by keeping two defenses on your roster to switch between matchups.
To assist you, I’ve developed a Playoff Score to assess defenses for Weeks 15-17. By employing my standard BOD Formula (details below), which identifies the most reliable fantasy defenses, I analyzed each team’s opponents across the fantasy playoffs. This Playoff Score evaluates each team’s recent fantasy performance, relevant metrics, and their upcoming matchups.
How to Utilize These Rankings
These rankings are based on recent fantasy points scored per game and the performance of offenses against opposing defenses, meaning they may shift week to week as team performances fluctuate. Therefore, this article aims to highlight which teams are likely to excel in the playoffs. Refer to the color-coded chart below to identify two defenses to add to your roster, enabling you to rotate based on favorable matchups.
The matchups marked in green represent the 10 easiest defenses to face based on recent performance (ranked 32nd to 23rd), while those in red are the 10 toughest (10th to 1st). Additional comments below provide clarification on the rankings.
BOD Formula:
((PRESSURE RATE x 1.5) + (TURNOVER RATE x 2)
MINUS
(EXPECTED POINTS PER PLAY ALLOWED x 100) + (CONVERSION RATE ALLOWED x 0.75) + (OPPONENT SCORING RATE))
Key Notes on Rankings
Before diving into the rankings, here are some important notes on how each team was assessed:
- I considered the average fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses over the past month to achieve a realistic current portrayal of team performances.
- If a team’s recent four-week ranking differed significantly from its season-long ranking without a significant injury, I averaged both rankings for better accuracy; hence, some may appear as duplicates.
- The Bengals’ rank was adjusted based on the belief that Joe Burrow‘s return will alter their previously favorable matchup against defenses.
- No similar adjustment was made for the Ravens, who have performed poorly even with Lamar Jackson returning.
- The Vikings’ ranking remains unchanged due to J.J. McCarthy‘s struggles, but I don’t expect them to remain a top matchup.
- The Chiefs’ offense received a slight downgrade due to recent injuries among their offensive linemen.
- The Chargers’ offense was upgraded slightly due to Omarion Hampton returning, though their offensive line issues limit the adjustment’s extent.
