Analyzing the Cowboys’ Draft Choices vs. Mock Draft Experts
Mel Kiper from ESPN and Daniel Jeremiah from NFL.com are prominent figures in the mock draft arena. This article explores what might have occurred if the Dallas Cowboys had adhered to their mock draft recommendations over the past six years, comparing this to the Cowboys’ actual selections—an analysis we’ve performed periodically on Blogging The Boys.
Focus on Final Mocks
In the realm of mock drafts, the final one released just before the actual draft is the most significant. While countless mock drafts are published during the offseason, they mainly serve as entertainment. Therefore, this analysis will center on Kiper’s and Jeremiah’s closing mock drafts from 2020 to 2025.
Why the Six-Year Horizon?
The last six years mark the transition from the Jason Garrett era (2010-2019) to the Mike McCarthy and Brian Schottenheimer era (2020-2025).
Setting the Baseline: The Garrett Era
To establish a reference point, we will first assess the Cowboys’ performance during the Garrett years. The table below showcases the first-round picks made by all 32 teams between 2010 and 2019, along with their Weighted Approximate Value (wAV). This metric, sourced from Pro-Football-Reference.com, quantifies each player’s season value across all positions.
Cowboys’ Draft Performance
During the Garrett era, the Cowboys ranked eighth overall in wAV, indicating a successful drafting strategy. However, picks like Taco Charlton and Morris Claiborne negatively impacted their stats. If they hadn’t traded away their 2019 first-round pick, their ranking might have improved further. Averaging 54.4 wAV points per pick, the Cowboys rank third in the NFL, behind only the Rams and Panthers.
Comparison with Kiper and Jeremiah
As we turn to Kiper and Jeremiah’s selections for the Cowboys, it’s crucial to note that this is not a direct comparison. The experts must consider the team needs and available players, resulting in varying mock drafts. Nevertheless, many of their picks align with public expectations at the time.
Jeremiah’s Projections vs. Actual Picks
Examining Jeremiah’s mock picks shows that they fell short compared to both the Cowboys’ actual outcomes and Kiper’s projections, ranking just 26th in wAV points. This could result from his focus on team needs rather than talent alone. To further illustrate, the consensus big board reveals players like CeeDee Lamb, who could have been excellent fits during the drafts. Moving forward, the Cowboys hold two first-round picks in the upcoming draft, providing another chance to acquire top talent, aiming for more successful outcomes like those from 2005 than the underwhelming results of 2008.
