Baseball is notoriously unpredictable, and while one may wish for a crystal ball to foresee the season’s outcomes, it remains intriguing to explore differing projection systems prior to each year.
Though sources often align on multiple teams, discrepancies exist. After examining PECOTA’s forecasts against those from FanGraphs, we have five major questions for the approaching season.
1. Are the Dodgers Just a Very Good Team or a Juggernaut?
The Dodgers, having won back-to-back championships, show no signs of slowing down. Instead of resting, they’ve been proactive, securing Kyle Tucker and Edwin Díaz, both of whom were top targets in free agency.
Given their roster, it’s expected that both PECOTA and FanGraphs view them as the top team in baseball. However, the extent of their dominance remains uncertain. FanGraphs estimates the Dodgers to win around 99 games, a solid performance but not extraordinary, while PECOTA’s prediction of 105 wins suggests a potentially historic achievement.
While 105 wins aren’t unprecedented, they’re quite uncommon. Since the 162-game schedule began in 1962, only 15 teams have reached this milestone, with the 2021 Dodgers holding the record for a defending champion with 106 wins.
2. Who Has the Upper Hand in the AL Central?
Following last year’s significant triumph, both FanGraphs and PECOTA project a decline for the Guardians in the AL Central. However, opinions vary on whether the Royals or the Tigers will ascend to the top.
PECOTA leans towards the Royals, who finished at an 82-80 record last season. Their internal improvements, particularly in their rotation, will be essential after their starters had limited appearances last season. Meanwhile, young talents like Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen are expected to deliver significant contributions.
Conversely, FanGraphs favors the Tigers, attributing them as the favorites after acquiring Framber Valdez to a squad that secured 87 wins last season.
3. Are the Red Sox Lagging Behind the Pack in the AL East?
Boston’s position within the AL East remains uncertain, with projections diverging on their true competitiveness.
PECOTA ranks the Yankees and Blue Jays above Boston, placing the Red Sox fourth and suggesting they might be closer to the Rays than the Orioles. In contrast, FanGraphs sees a tightly contested battle with the Red Sox in the middle tier, their playoff odds falling between 53.6% and 68.5%, with Boston at 58.5%.
4. Just How Large is the Cubs’ Edge in the NL Central?
The Brewers have often dominated the NL Central, yet the Cubs are positioned to seize the opportunity. After a commendable 92-win season, the Cubs have fortified their roster with key additions, making them formidable contenders.
Both PECOTA and FanGraphs favor the Cubs for the division title, though they hold different views on the margins. PECOTA is optimistic, indicating a 10-win advantage over the Brewers, whereas FanGraphs foresees a tighter competition, highlighting the Pirates as serious challengers.
5. Are the Astros a Real Threat in the AL?
After missing the playoffs last year, the Astros find themselves at a pivotal moment. Their former dominance has waned, yet they have a history of retooling successfully. Despite last season’s challenges, they managed 87 wins, suggesting they might bounce back if key players remain healthy and new additions fill gaps.
PECOTA is hopeful, estimating the Astros as the fourth-best team in the AL. In contrast, FanGraphs takes a more skeptical stance, predicting them as the seventh-best team with a .500 winning percentage.
