The Cup Series is back in action after a week off, on its way to Bristol Motor Speedway for the 2026 Food City 500, which is set to start at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday. NASCAR predictions for Bristol and DFS lineups are likely to center on Joe Gibbs Racing, whose drivers have secured victories in three of the last four spring races at this venue, as well as two of the last three fall events. Additionally, Kyle Busch is a key figure to watch in the betting landscape, as he seeks to achieve a record-setting seventh victory at the spring Bristol race.
Kyle Larson leads the odds for the Food City 500 at +340 and is the defending champion of the race, followed closely by Denny Hamlin at +470. Ryan Blaney comes in at +600, with Christopher Bell at +650, Ty Gibbs at +700, and Chase Elliott at +1300, hoping for consecutive wins. Tyler Reddick is currently at the top of the Cup Series standings but is considered a longshot at +2500, particularly since he hasn’t finished in the top five during his last seven appearances at Bristol. Before finalizing any NASCAR DFS lineups or predictions for the Food City 500, it’s essential to check the projected leaderboard created by Mike McClure’s established model.
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McClure, an accomplished DFS player with over $2 million in winnings, employs a robust prediction model that runs simulations of every NASCAR race lap 10,000 times. This model has remarkably predicted 29 race winners since 2021, including 11 in the year 2025. Anyone who has followed his NASCAR bets at various sportsbooks has likely seen substantial returns.
Now, McClure is focusing on the NASCAR Food City 500 and is exclusively sharing his top betting picks at SportsLine.
2026 NASCAR at Bristol Predictions
For the 2026 event at Bristol, McClure is steering clear of Blaney (+600), suggesting that he struggles to make the top five, despite being a favored contender. Blaney, who has won in both the Truck Series and Xfinity Series at Bristol, has yet to carry that success over to the Cup Series, having made 20 attempts without a victory. His record shows more finishes outside the top 10 than within it, and he hasn’t achieved a top-3 finish at Bristol in his career.
Surprisingly, Joey Logano (+1900) is predicted to make a strong push for the title. As a two-time winner at Bristol, Logano has demonstrated significant recent success there, finishing fifth in his last race and third in his most recent outing this season. His capabilities on short tracks are noteworthy, with five continuous top 10 finishes in these events, and his average career finish of 12.1 on short tracks ranks among the best of active drivers.
How to Make 2026 Food City 500 Picks
McClure also recommends three longshot picks over +2000, including two substantial longshots at +4000, which could yield big payouts for those who back them. Discover these longshots here.
Curious about who will win the 2026 Food City 500 and which underdogs might surprise at Bristol? Visit SportsLine for expert picks and bets from a model that accurately forecasted 11 winners last year.
2026 NASCAR at Bristol Odds
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View the complete NASCAR Food City 500 picks at SportsLine.
(Odds from FanDuel, subject to change)
Kyle Larson +340
Denny Hamlin +470
Ryan Blaney +600
Christopher Bell +650
Ty Gibbs +700
William Byron +1100
Chase Elliott +1300
Chase Briscoe +1300
Brad Keselowski +1900
Joey Logano +1900
Carson Hocevar +2000
Chris Buescher +2500
Tyler Reddick +2500
Alex Bowman +3000
Bubba Wallace +3300
Ryan Preece +3500
Austin Cindric +3500
Kyle Busch +4000
Ross Chastain +4000
Josh Berry +5000
Zane Smith +10000
Erik Jones +12500
Michael McDowell +12500
Connor Zilisch +12500
Austin Dillon +15000
Shane van Gisbergen +15000
Daniel Suarez +17500
John Hunter Nemechek +17500
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +17500
AJ Allmendinger +20000
Cole Custer +50000
Todd Gilliland +50000
Ty Dillon +50000
Noah Gragson +50000
Cody Ware +50000
Chad Finchum +50000
Riley Herbst +50000
