Ukraine is increasing its defenses near Belarus, amid concerns that President Alexander Lukashenko may permit Russian forces to launch further attacks from his territory, according to the Associated Press. The warning comes as military tensions escalate between Ukraine and its neighbor to the north.
What happened
Ukrainian officials in Kyiv are raising alarms about the possibility of Belarus allowing Russian troops to use its territory as a launchpad for future attacks. Since the onset of the conflict, Belarus has not deployed its own troops but has supported Russia by hosting nuclear weapons and military infrastructure. “Lukashenko is helping Russia in every way he can,” said Uladzimir Zhyhar, head of BELPOL, a group opposing the Belarusian regime.
Earlier this month, Belarus participated in joint military drills with Russia that included nuclear weapons operations. These collaborative efforts have prompted fears among Ukraine’s allies regarding Belarus’s increasing military cooperation with Moscow, particularly following Ukraine’s unsuccessful attempts to negotiate peace in the early stages of the war.
Why it matters
As Belarus aligns more closely with Russia, the geopolitical stakes are escalating. Ukraine’s northern borders are now strained, requiring the country to allocate military resources to defend against potential threats from Belarus, further complicating its efforts to counter Russian aggression. This situation endangers not only Ukraine but also NATO countries that share borders with Belarus.
Background
On February 24, 2022, Russia initiated a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, using Belarusian territory as a staging ground. The initial strategy involved advancing toward Kyiv from the north, yet Ukrainian resistance thwarted Moscow’s plans. Following the failures in Kyiv, negotiations aimed at ending the conflict took place in Belarus but ultimately stalled.
Over the past four years, Belarus has strengthened its military ties with Russia, contributing to Moscow’s war effort through the production of vital military components. Fragments of missiles fired at Ukraine have been traced back to Belarusian-made parts, according to Ukrainian sanctions envoy Vladyslav Vlasiuk.
What’s next
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has ordered military and security agencies to bolster defenses along the northern border, as intelligence suggests Russia may further involve Belarus in aggressive actions. Meanwhile, Lukashenko has announced he will host talks with a French envoy next week to discuss European security and reduce EU sanctions, amidst increasing Western concerns.
