Potential Impact of Larijani’s Assassination
If verified, Israel’s assassination of Ali Larijani, the head of Iran’s supreme national security council and a key figure in Iranian politics, would significantly harm the nation—possibly more so than losing supreme leader Ali Khamenei at the war’s onset.
Strategic Importance of Larijani
In any strategy to dismantle Iranian leadership, Larijani would be a primary target due to his wide-ranging influence in Iranian politics and on foreign relations with countries like China and Russia.
Comparison to Previous Losses
Indeed, the loss of Larijani could be regarded as one of the most significant for the Iranian regime since the US killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leader Qassem Suleimani in Baghdad in January 2020.
US Perspectives on Leadership
Larijani’s removal also indicates that Israel, and likely the US, did not see him as a potential leader during a possible government collapse. Ellie Geranmayeh, an expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, mentioned that Netanyahu is currently focused on obstructing Trump’s efforts for a ceasefire and discussions with Iran; Larijani would have been pivotal for this task.
Shift in U.S. Leadership Outlook
The assassination of Larijani, 67, a proponent of a nuclear agreement with the US, not only diminishes the likelihood of him acting as a transitional leader similar to Delcy Rodríguez in Venezuela but raises doubts about whether the US even has a viable internal candidate in Iran.
Larijani’s Role in Iranian Politics
Larijani possessed a unique ability to navigate Iran’s complex political landscape while maintaining connections with the IRGC, despite some ideological differences. He had been influential in delaying Mojtaba Khamenei’s ascension as the new supreme leader.
Final Thoughts
Considering the numerous challenges facing Iran, the loss of such a pivotal figure as Larijani during these critical times poses crucial questions about the future trajectory of Iranian politics and leadership dynamics.
