Formula 1 teams and drivers now have significantly more data to inform their contract choices than just a few months ago.
The competitive landscape under the new regulations has become clearer, with many key questions regarding the 2026 season addressed. These include affirmations about Mercedes’ adaptability to engine regulations (which they’ve successfully navigated), the rising competence of Red Bull-Ford as a new power unit manufacturer (showing promise), and whether Aston Martin-Honda will become serious contenders (still uncertain).
So, how might this reshape the driver market? The Race F1 Podcast brought together panelists Edd Straw, Jon Noble, and Scott Mitchell-Malm in a special episode to discuss the current scenarios within the paddock and speculate on the 2027 grid.
Red Bull
Red Bull is expected to be the major player in any potential changes at the top of the field. Max Verstappen, their key driver and four-time champion, is reportedly considering a break from F1 due to dissatisfaction with the current regulations. His contract includes a clause that could see him exit at the season’s end. However, it seems more likely he would negotiate to stay associated with Red Bull while stepping back from racing.
“He’s pivotal,” said Jon regarding Verstappen’s impact on the driver market. He noted that any major moves are likely dependent on Verstappen’s decision. “I would lean towards Max not racing next year,” concurred Scott, although Edd believes Verstappen may remain on the grid in 2027. Regardless of Verstappen’s choice, Isack Hadjar is a strong candidate to keep his seat at Red Bull.
Mercedes
Toto Wolff’s longstanding interest in Verstappen remains a significant variable for Mercedes as they might consider changes. However, Verstappen’s loyalty to Red Bull and his grievances with the regulations suggest that this move is unlikely.
“If Verstappen steps away, it’s likely with a plan to return to Red Bull,” Scott speculated. Given the current trajectory, the expected 2027 lineup appears to be George Russell and Kimi Antonelli, unless a 2026 title battle complicates matters.
Ferrari
Speculating on a Lewis Hamilton-to-Ollie Bearman swap at Ferrari seemed straightforward last year, but Hamilton now appears rejuvenated and competitive. While Scott believes Charles Leclerc may not stay forever at Ferrari, there are currently no viable options for him elsewhere.
Thus, the projected lineup for Ferrari is likely Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton.
McLaren
While the internal McLaren competition heated up in 2025, rumors persist that Oscar Piastri’s camp may be content with their position. Scott noted that Piastri remains a potential target for Red Bull, though 2027 might be premature for any movement.
The projected McLaren lineup for 2027 is Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri.
Aston Martin
Aston Martin’s success at the start of 2026 has placed them under scrutiny, especially considering their partnership with Honda. Jon suggested that if they had started strong, competition for Fernando Alonso’s seat might have been fierce. As they currently stand, however, it seems Alonso and teammate Lance Stroll will remain unchallenged.
Alpine
Pierre Gasly’s position appears secure for 2027, but Franco Colapinto’s future remains uncertain due to performance issues. Alpine may seek to replace him with a more proven driver, possibly considering options like Alex Albon.
The projected lineup for Alpine features Pierre Gasly and Alex Albon.
Williams
Williams has struggled badly under the new regulations, leading to unrest among both drivers. Jon predicts that if one does leave, reserve driver Luke Browning could be a candidate, though it might be too soon for him.
The expected Williams lineup for 2027 is Carlos Sainz and Esteban Ocon.
Our 2027 F1 Grid Prediction
Mercedes: Kimi Antonelli/George Russell
Ferrari: Charles Leclerc/Lewis Hamilton
McLaren: Lando Norris/Oscar Piastri
Haas: Ollie Bearman/Yuki Tsunoda
Alpine: Pierre Gasly/Alex Albon
Red Bull: Isack Hadjar/Arvid Lindblad
Racing Bulls: Liam Lawson/Nikola Tsolov
Audi: Gabriel Bortoleto/Nico Hulkenberg
Williams: Carlos Sainz/Esteban Ocon
Cadillac: Valtteri Bottas/Sergio Perez
Aston Martin: Fernando Alonso/Lance Stroll
