Trump Family’s Prediction Market Plans Stalled
The chances of the Trump family introducing a significant prediction market this year have significantly decreased.
Last year, the Trump Media and Technology Group announced Truth Predict, a partnership with Crypto.com. The announcement presented Truth Predict as a “new product” that would enable Truth Social users to trade on various topics such as sports, inflation, and elections via an integrated prediction market. “For too long, global elites have controlled these markets—Truth Predict aims to democratize information, allowing everyday Americans to leverage collective insights,” said then-CEO Devin Nunes in an October 2025 press release.
Previously, the company elaborated on how Truth Social users could convert their “Truth gem” currency into Cronos cryptocurrency tokens for trading on Truth Predict. However, Trump Media has since changed its narrative. In a recent public disclosure, the company revealed that the prediction market “remains in development” and will initially focus on a “marketing and promotion collaboration” with OG.com, a prediction market platform launched by Crypto.com in February 2026.
But what does a “marketing and promotion collaboration” entail? It’s unclear, as neither Trump Media nor Crypto.com has provided details regarding the agreement. “We’re encouraged by the advancements in developing Truth Predict alongside CDNA and are eager to introduce this feature to Truth Social’s users,” stated Trump Media spokesperson Shannon Devine in an email to WIRED. (“CDNA” refers to Crypto.com’s partner US-regulated derivatives exchange, known as Crypto.com | Derivatives North America.)
The prediction market sector is rapidly evolving and competitive. Donald Trump Jr. has associations with several major markets, serving as a paid advisor to Kalshi and investor in Polymarket through his venture capital firm. Although President Trump has made limited public remarks on prediction markets, he once expressed his discontent, stating he does not “like it conceptually.”
Despite this, the Trump administration generally supported the industry via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In comparison, the Biden-era CFTC took action against Polymarket, even raiding CEO Shayne Coplan’s home; the Trump-era CFTC did not continue its investigation. Furthermore, the Trump-era CFTC asserts its exclusive authority over the industry, resisting state-level interventions and threatening legal action against states like Nevada and Massachusetts that challenge it.
One distinctive feature of OG.com is its original intention to allow margin trading, enabling participants to borrow funds for trading instead of using only their own capital. Margin trading is common in financial derivatives but relatively novel for prediction markets, presenting increased risks. It is currently unclear if OG.com offers this feature, as our inquiries were met with a statement indicating “margin trading is not an offered product.”
Ultimately, in the near future, a Truth Social user could perhaps switch between reading Trump’s posts and borrowing money to place bets on events like the World Cup—though the exact nature of the “marketing and promotion collaboration” might mean they aren’t directly trading within the social network.
