Following the Japanese Grand Prix and the cancellation of races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, Formula 1 is now in an extended break. This pause offers a perfect chance to delve into the data and assess the effects of the new regulations on the competition.
After examining the teammate rivalries for 2026 along with Mercedes’ current stronghold, we will analyze the present competitive environment. To start, the first three races this season saw an 11-team, 22-driver grid with a difference of 3.63 seconds in qualifying times and 3.60 seconds per lap during races.
This spread represents a considerable increase from last year’s figures. In 2025, the qualifying spread was just 1.14 seconds, while lap times during races only differed by 1.52 seconds. The winter saw the gap between the fastest and slowest teams nearly triple—an anticipated outcome of the new regulations alongside the arrival of Cadillac.
Historically, such large performance differences were observed last in 2017, when Sauber lagged behind the leading Mercedes by an average of 3.64 seconds in qualifying sessions.
Current Competitive Landscape: Red Bull’s Weakest Performance Since 2015
Mercedes currently leads the competition significantly. After the first three weekends, its average qualifying advantage over Ferrari measured 0.56 seconds, with a race pace lead of 0.53 seconds. Ferrari emerges as the main contender.
McLaren shows up as the third competitive force at +0.78 seconds in qualifying and +0.82 seconds in race pace, while Red Bull follows at +0.97 seconds in qualifying and +1.26 seconds in race time. Red Bull’s current deficit signals a significant drop—one not seen since 2015.
Ferrari-Powered Teams Excel in Race Conditions
A differentiation emerges when contrasting qualifying and race performance; Ferrari-powered cars generally outperform in race scenarios. All teams, except Ferrari and Cadillac, display closer times to Mercedes in qualifying than they do in races.
Ferrari gains about 0.03 seconds per lap on Mercedes during races, and Cadillac exhibits a similar trend, with Haas showing less drop-off compared to the rest of the midfield.
Rapid Advancements: Cadillac Narrows the Gap
Another intriguing factor is the fast-paced development throughout the season. While updates were issued for Round 3 in Suzuka, actual performance enhancements derive largely from improved understanding of the new cars, especially engine mapping.
Notably, Cadillac demonstrated impressive progress, trimming its time deficit from 4.12 seconds to 3.18 seconds per lap from Australia to Japan, amounting to a nearly full second gained, despite the longer circuit. Other teams, too, have made strides, with McLaren narrowing its race pace deficit from 1.34 seconds in Australia to just 0.29 seconds in Japan.
