Geoffrey Kendrick, who heads digital asset research at Standard Chartered, recently revised his forecast for XRP (XRP +2.77%). Initially, he projected the cryptocurrency would reach $8 by December, but he has now adjusted that figure to $2.80, citing macroeconomic challenges. Nonetheless, this new estimate represents a 107% potential increase from its current value of $1.35.
While I agree with Kendrick’s decision to adjust his target, I believe he’s still being overly optimistic. XRP has seen a 61% decline from its peak, and I anticipate its price will continue to fall throughout the year, potentially reaching $1 by December. Here’s my reasoning.
XRP Struggles as a Bridge Currency
XRP serves as the native digital asset on the XRP Ledger, a blockchain designed to facilitate faster and more affordable cross-border transactions compared to the existing Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) system.
SWIFT currently dominates the international wire transfer market; however, transactions can come with high fees as they typically flow through multiple banks, each levying its own charges. Moreover, SWIFT payments may take days to finalize. In contrast, the XRP blockchain can process transactions in mere seconds, with almost negligible fees.
Moreover, XRP has support from fintech firm Ripple, which has developed a payment platform that uses XRP as a bridge currency. Specifically, Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) converts fiat into XRP, moves it on the blockchain, and then converts it back to fiat at its destination.
Spot XRP ETFs Have Not Driven Interest
Spot XRP ETFs are funds that track XRP’s price, providing investors with a simplified entry point while avoiding the hassles and costs associated with cryptocurrency exchanges. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved six spot ETFs exclusively holding XRP.
These ETFs were expected to serve as significant catalysts for price growth, but they have not produced the desired effect since their launch late last year. In fact, XRP has decreased by 42% in 2026 despite the introduction of these funds. Daily net inflows to spot XRP ETFs have been consistently declining, and assets under management (AUM) stand at only $1 billion, which is about 1.2% of XRP’s $81 billion market cap.
In contrast, Bitcoin has only dropped by 23% this year, with AUM in spot Bitcoin ETFs amounting to roughly $95 billion, representing 6.4% of its $1.4 trillion market value. This indicates that institutional investors may prefer regulated spot ETFs over unregulated cryptocurrencies. Therefore, the relatively small share of the market represented by spot XRP ETFs suggests a lack of robust institutional interest compared to Bitcoin.
In summary, XRP’s potential as a bridge currency is limited when stablecoins provide a more stable alternative, and the impact of spot XRP ETFs has been minimal. Consequently, XRP currently lacks any significant catalysts for price growth, leading me to believe that its price may dip to $1 by the year’s end.
